Election Forecasting in the United Kingdom: A Two‐Step Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 333-358 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Nadeau ◽  
Michael S. Lewis‐Beck ◽  
Éric Bélanger
Author(s):  
Michael S. Lewis-Beck

To forecast an election means to declare the outcome before it happens. Scientific approaches to election forecasting include polls, political stock markets and statistical models. I review these approaches, with an emphasis on the last, since it offers more lead time. Consideration is given to the history and politics of statistical forecasting models of elections. Rules for evaluating such models are offered. Examples of actual models come from the United States, France and the United Kingdom, where this work is rather new. Compared to other approaches, statistical modelling seems a promising method for forecasting elections.


2009 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nishan Fernando ◽  
Gordon Prescott ◽  
Jennifer Cleland ◽  
Kathryn Greaves ◽  
Hamish McKenzie

1990 ◽  
Vol 35 (8) ◽  
pp. 800-801
Author(s):  
Michael F. Pogue-Geile

1992 ◽  
Vol 37 (10) ◽  
pp. 1076-1077
Author(s):  
Barbara A. Gutek

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