Statistical methods for election forecasting in the United Kingdom 1970–90

SummaryThis paper describes statistical methods for analysing data arising from distinctness, uniformity and stability variety trials carried out to fulfil Statutory Regulations in the United Kingdom. Both univariate and multivariate methods are considered. It is shown that multivariate techniques can separate some variety pairs which could not be separated using univariate methods. A computer system for routinely analysing these trials is also described.

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Election Forecasting in the United Kingdom

Encyclopedia of Statistical Sciences ◽

10.1002/0471667196.ess0547.pub2 ◽

2006 ◽

Author(s):

Clive Payne

Keyword(s):

United Kingdom ◽

Election Forecasting ◽

The United Kingdom

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European Jurassic floras: statistics and palaeoenvironmental proxies

Acta Palaeobotanica ◽

10.2478/acpa-2014-0011 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 54 (2) ◽

pp. 173-195 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Maria Barbacka ◽

Emese Bodor ◽

Agata Jarzynka ◽

Evelyn Kustatscher ◽

Grzegorz Pacyna ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cluster Analysis ◽

United Kingdom ◽

Environmental Factors ◽

Statistical Methods ◽

Species Level ◽

Statistical Analyses ◽

Multivariate Statistical Methods ◽

Multivariate Statistical ◽

The United Kingdom ◽

Plant Groups

Abstract The Jurassic floras of Europe show considerable diversity. To examine the extent of this diversity and its possible causes we used multivariate statistical methods (cluster analysis, PCA, NMDS) to compare all significant Jurassic floras in Europe. Data were based on 770 taxa from 46 fossiliferous occurrences (25 units) from France, Germany, Greenland, Hungary, Italy, Norway, Poland, Romania, Scotland, Serbia, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom. Statistical analyses were applied at species level and genus level, and also performed for the major plant groups. The genus cladograms show affinities between different localities based on environmental factors, while the cladograms based on species affinities indicate only taxonomical correlations. The study shows that locality age does not seem to be of paramount importance for floral composition.

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Election Forecasting in the United Kingdom

Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online ◽

10.1002/9781118445112.stat00045 ◽

2014 ◽

Author(s):

Clive Payne

Keyword(s):

United Kingdom ◽

Election Forecasting ◽

The United Kingdom

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Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice

The British Journal of Politics and International Relations ◽

10.1111/j.1467-856x.2005.00178.x ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 7 (2) ◽

pp. 145-164 ◽

Cited By ~ 112

Author(s):

Michael S. Lewis-Beck

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

United Kingdom ◽

Statistical Models ◽

Lead Time ◽

Statistical Modelling ◽

The United States ◽

Statistical Forecasting ◽

Election Forecasting ◽

Forecasting Models ◽

The United Kingdom

To forecast an election means to declare the outcome before it happens. Scientific approaches to election forecasting include polls, political stock markets and statistical models. I review these approaches, with an emphasis on the last, since it offers more lead time. Consideration is given to the history and politics of statistical forecasting models of elections. Rules for evaluating such models are offered. Examples of actual models come from the United States, France and the United Kingdom, where this work is rather new. Compared to other approaches, statistical modelling seems a promising method for forecasting elections.

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