Duterte vow on Philippine drug war is mainly for show

10.1108/oxan-db223952 ◽

2017 ◽

Keyword(s):

Young People ◽

Government Spending ◽

Local Level ◽

Illegal Drug ◽

Police Misconduct ◽

Illegal Drugs ◽

Drug War ◽

Content Type ◽

Investor Confidence

Significance This follows the August 15-18 PNP raids in and around Manila which saw up to 81 people killed who officially were suspected of involvement in illegal drug-related activities but allegedly resisted arrest. The PNP has been conducting a nationwide crackdown on illegal drugs since President Rodrigo Duterte’s June 2016 inauguration. However, claims of vigilantism and police misconduct abound. Impacts Duterte may again need to halt the drugs war or call for the PNP to investigate itself. Senate drugs hearings could slow other legislation, potentially hitting investor confidence and government spending. Senatorial concern over the killings could translate into bargaining over other administration policy priorities. Going after suspected local 'narco-politicians' will cause local-level administrative instability. Further anti-drug-war protests from young people, the left and religious organisations are likely.

Bangladesh’s drug war helps ruling party in short term

10.1108/oxan-db235796 ◽

2018 ◽

Keyword(s):

Prime Minister ◽

Refugee Camps ◽

Illegal Trade ◽

Short Term ◽

Drug War ◽

Content Type ◽

North East ◽

Security Personnel ◽

High Commissioner ◽

Ruling Party

Subject Bangladesh's narcotics crackdown. Significance Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is overseeing a ‘drug war’, with security personnel targeting illegal trade in yaba (methamphetamines). The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has criticised the campaign, in which an estimated 150 people have been killed and at least 13,000 arrested since mid-May. The ruling Awami League (AL) is expected to retain power in the general election, due by late December. Impacts The yaba trade will worsen social conditions in Rohingya refugee camps. India’s north-east could face an increasing problem of yaba trafficking. Bangladesh’s election campaign is likely to involve widespread use of undeclared money.

Philippine police could soon return to drug war

10.1108/oxan-es226015 ◽

2017 ◽

Keyword(s):

Drug War ◽

Headline PHILIPPINES: Police could soon return to drug war

Philippines’s Duterte may fear trial over drug war

10.1108/oxan-es230414 ◽

2018 ◽

Keyword(s):

Drug War ◽

Headline PHILIPPINES: Duterte may fear trial over drug war

Duterte risks stoking rancour over Philippine drug war

10.1108/oxan-es249018 ◽

2019 ◽

Keyword(s):

Drug War ◽

Headline PHILIPPINES: Duterte risks more rancour over drug war

Philippines will push back on pressure over drug war

10.1108/oxan-es262134 ◽

2021 ◽

Keyword(s):

Drug War ◽

Headline PHILIPPINES: Manila will push back on court pressure

Presidential handover in Philippines would be messy

10.1108/oxan-db250227 ◽

2020 ◽

Keyword(s):

Presidential Election ◽

Military Intervention ◽

Vice President ◽

Short Term ◽

Drug War ◽

Content Type ◽

Downward Pressure ◽

Step Down

Subject Possible scenarios if Philippine president were to step down for health reasons. Significance President Rodrigo Duterte at the start of this month abruptly cancelled appointments to meet earthquake victims; his spokesperson, Salvador Panelo, said the president was unwell. Duterte’s frequent absences from public duties, due to ill health, have raised doubts about his ability to complete his six-year term, which began in June 2016. If he is forced to step down, possible successors include Vice President Leni Robredo, who was elected separately in 2016 and is a Duterte critic, and former Senator Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos, whom Robredo defeated in the vice-presidential election. Impacts A premature end to the Duterte presidency would put downward pressure on the peso, at least in the short term. Duterte stepping down would raise concerns about possible military intervention in politics. Whereas Robredo would aim to wind down the drug war, Marcos would probably sustain it.