Presidential handover in Philippines would be messy

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Drug War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
Step Down

Subject Possible scenarios if Philippine president were to step down for health reasons. Significance President Rodrigo Duterte at the start of this month abruptly cancelled appointments to meet earthquake victims; his spokesperson, Salvador Panelo, said the president was unwell. Duterte’s frequent absences from public duties, due to ill health, have raised doubts about his ability to complete his six-year term, which began in June 2016. If he is forced to step down, possible successors include Vice President Leni Robredo, who was elected separately in 2016 and is a Duterte critic, and former Senator Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos, whom Robredo defeated in the vice-presidential election. Impacts A premature end to the Duterte presidency would put downward pressure on the peso, at least in the short term. Duterte stepping down would raise concerns about possible military intervention in politics. Whereas Robredo would aim to wind down the drug war, Marcos would probably sustain it.

Zimbabwean transition faces competing power centres

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
First Lady ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
Step Down ◽  
Competing Power ◽  
The Military

Significance The military intervention, which the army insists is not a 'coup', followed a week after Mugabe controversially dismissed Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa after allegations by First Lady Grace Mugabe that the vice president was a “coup plotter”. Domestic mediators are reportedly meeting Mugabe and urging the intransigent incumbent to step down after 37 years in power. Impacts Were Grace Mugabe to flee into exile, this would effectively end her hopes of succeeding her husband. The Southern African Development Community (SADC), in particular South Africa, will likely take the international lead in the transition. An immediate priority for a new administration will be tackling the worsening cash crunch afflicting the economy.

Deby’s control of Chad looks unlikely to be shaken

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Humanitarian Emergencies ◽  
Border Regions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
The Family ◽  
Military Posts

Significance The presidential election will take place on April 11 and parliamentary elections are scheduled for October. As the country prepares for the polls, security challenges and humanitarian emergencies are unfolding in various parts of the country, especially in remote and border regions. Impacts The designation of a vice-president could shift balances of power within the family network that dominates top political and military posts. Western powers and other African states are likely to accept even a highly flawed election, as they have in the past. Further protests may occur, but Deby appears less vulnerable in the short-term than Malian President Ibrahim Keita proved in 2020.

Intervention in The Gambia may prove unique

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Military Intervention ◽  
West African ◽  
The Gambia ◽  
Truth Commission ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Assistance ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Security Guarantees

Significance For over a month, Jammeh rebuffed diplomatic efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to accept Adama Barrow's victory in the December 1 presidential poll. An ECOWAS military intervention into The Gambia -- accompanied by last-minute diplomatic efforts and purported financial and security guarantees -- finally forced Jammeh to accept defeat. Impacts A truth commission offering amnesty for military officials and the outgoing government could prompt discord within the new ruling alliance. Military restructuring will be a priority for Barrow's government. International assistance will likely flow in support of the new president. The Gambia's tourism sector -- which makes up nearly 20% of the country's GDP -- will struggle to recover in the short-term. The ECOWAS intervention could prove unpopular among members' domestic constituencies if a lengthy, costly mission emerges.

Debt crisis will delay Zimbabwe economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Do So

Subject Outlook for Zimbabwe's sovereign debt. Significance Secretary to the Treasury Willard Manungo earlier this month revealed that the government owes its diplomats 10 million dollars in salary arrears. It is the latest development in Zimbabwe's fiscal crunch, worsened by President Robert Mugabe's government's limited access to debt financing. This is forcing it to pursue complex, simultaneous negotiations with multiple creditors. Impacts Limited financing will hurt government plans to import 700,000 tonnes of maize necessary to address drought-induced shortfalls. South Africa's restrictive visa regime and clampdowns on illegal immigrants could begin to hurt remittance flows to Zimbabwe. Former Vice-President Joice Mujuru is unlikely to announce a new party in the short term, but may do so before polls in 2018.

Nigerian restructuring debates will persist

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Presidential Campaign ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Federal System ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Revenue Allocation

Subject Nigeria's restructuring debates. Significance Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, a potential presidential candidate for the opposition People's Democratic Party (PDP) in next year's elections, has publicly backed restructuring Nigeria's centralised, federal system. His comments follow shortly after a committee from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) produced a report that proposed giving each of Nigeria's 36 states control over mineral resources, decentralising the security forces and reviewing the states' revenue allocation formula. Despite advocating for restructuring during his 2015 presidential campaign, President Muhammadu Buhari has recently dismissed calls for greater devolution. Impacts Significant national restructuring would likely necessitate a census, something there is currently little political appetite for. Police force devolution is one of the APC restructuring proposals most likely to find favour with Buhari's government. Ending a Senate-presidency impasse over central bank nominations will bring short-term investor relief, but divisions will likely linger.

Bangladesh’s drug war helps ruling party in short term

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Illegal Trade ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Drug War ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
Security Personnel ◽  
High Commissioner ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Bangladesh's narcotics crackdown. Significance Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is overseeing a ‘drug war’, with security personnel targeting illegal trade in yaba (methamphetamines). The Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has criticised the campaign, in which an estimated 150 people have been killed and at least 13,000 arrested since mid-May. The ruling Awami League (AL) is expected to retain power in the general election, due by late December. Impacts The yaba trade will worsen social conditions in Rohingya refugee camps. India’s north-east could face an increasing problem of yaba trafficking. Bangladesh’s election campaign is likely to involve widespread use of undeclared money.

Zimbabwe's military will entrench its influence

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Military Intervention ◽  
Structural Constraints ◽  
Tight Control ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Electronic Money ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Key Sectors ◽  
Democratic Change ◽  
Robert Mugabe

Significance Since coming to power following November's military intervention and ouster of former President Robert Mugabe, Mnangagwa and his government have promised an overhaul of the economy, including reversing controversial indigenisation policies. However, unresolved structural constraints in key sectors, including the military’s ongoing influence, limit the potential for success. Impacts The opposition is likely to fracture further as a succession struggle takes hold within the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T). The military's influence over agricultural policy will allow tight control and repression of the rural electorate ahead of polls. A de-dollarisation of the economy is unlikely in the short term; a mix of US dollars, bond notes and electronic money will still be used.

France’s economic plan focuses on short and long term

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Tax Burden ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Plan ◽  
Social Protests ◽  
Short And Long Term

Significance Amid one of the steepest economic contractions in Europe, with GDP expected to shrink by 11% this year, the relaunch programme aims to reduce the tax burden on business and to incentivise industry to shift to greener, more sustainable activities and forms of production. It also containes short-term measures to save jobs ahead of the 2022 presidential election. Impacts In electoral terms, the relaunch plan targets centre-right voters and those espousing green causes. The risk of social protests will rise, because the plan has far less emphasis on redistribution than many on the left demand. The effort to reshore some forms of production will be opposed by industrial leaders worried it will increase costs.

Suga will hold Japan steady in short term only

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election

Significance He leaves office having failed to achieve his ambition to reform Japan’s constitution, and is widely seen as having mismanaged the most serious public health crisis in decades. Impacts New foreign policy initiatives are unlikely until after the US presidential election. Abe could make a decision before leaving office on whether Japan should acquire pre-emptive strike capabilities. No moves on constitution revision are likely for the next twelve months at least. Japan would be at a disadvantage if a foreign policy crisis were to occur in the next twelve months, and the next few weeks in particular. Whether the Olympics next summer go well will have some influence on whether Suga stays on as leader.

Ecuador's left is down but far from out

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Face Former ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The first round's leading candidate, former Vice-President Lenin Moreno, of the leftist ruling party Alianza Pais, will face former banker and centre-right candidate Guillermo Lasso on April 2. The announcement came amid accusations of fraud and growing criticism over the delays in releasing the official results. Impacts The election results will increase economic uncertainty and dampen economic activity in the short term. Political tensions will rise as the two presidential candidates battle to secure votes outside of their core constituencies. Whatever the runoff result, Alianza Pais will hold its National Assembly majority, exerting significant influence over legislative matters. With economic woes hindering the new government, four years of unpopular right-wing rule could pave the way for a Correa comeback in 2021.

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