Monetary Policy and Bank Credit Risk in Vietnam Pre and Post Global Financial Crisis

Author(s):  
Xuan Vinh Vo ◽  
Phuc Canh Nguyen
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ioannis Katsampoxakis

PurposeThe paper examines the impact of the deteriorating fiscal conditions of Eurozone countries on spillover effects on bank credit margins. It is investigated whether these effects have been reduced after European Central Bank’s (ECB) signaling of pursuing an expansionary, unconventional, monetary policy to address the debt crisis in Eurozone.Design/methodology/approachA general econometric panel model is applied to investigate spillover effects between Eurozone countries and bank credit margins. In total, three periods are examined: the period before the peak of the global financial crisis and the beginning of the Irish banking crisis, the period during the debt and bank crisis in Eurozone and the period after ECB's signaling of extremely aggressive monetary easing.FindingsAccording to empirical results, before the peak of the global financial crisis there was no substantial credit risk transfer from Eurozone sovereigns to banks. During the period of debt and bank crisis in Eurozone, the deterioration of the fiscal situation of Eurozone countries had a significant impact on bank Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads. After ECB's signaling of extremely aggressive monetary easing, it does not seem to be any significant relationship between Eurozone sovereigns and bank CDS spreads. These findings reinforce the assessment that ECB's measures were effective, achieving the key objective of normalizing economic conditions and ensuring financial stability in Eurozone.Research limitations/implicationsA question is whether effects can change when the corresponding contraction will lead to a reinstatement of “normal” conditions. Would there be a reversal of risk premium trends in bond markets? Although the answer from casual observations seems to be negative, it is a valid research question to be examined. An interesting issue concerning the unconventional monetary policy measures implemented by ECB concerns the issues of moral hazard that they incorporate, something that could not be addressed. Another research perspective could be the use of the beta coefficient to measure the systematic and unsystematic risk of banking sector shares.Practical implicationsThe results have strong implications for ECB and European banking regulation. Regulators should mainly pay more attention to the amount and concentration of sovereign debt held by banks. Eurozone financial system could be less vulnerable to the sovereign credit risk. It raised the critical question of whether a more strict regulation is needed. Regulators should not intervene if not necessary, but they must prevent the transmission of crises between markets. This will likely bring trust to the developed countries' sovereign debt and the portfolios of the financial institutions, which hold most of this debt will be considered safe as well.Social implicationsThe conclusions provide a safe counterweight in various respects. First, the negative effects and the need to rapidly cease or limit such policies. Second, the financial stability aimed by ECB. Such policies contain the possibility of a subsequent moral hazard related to Member State and bank behavior. However, these contingencies need to be assessed with the benefits resulting from the restoration of financial markets and the disconnection between banking and sovereign credit risk. This leads Eurozone's financial system to become less vulnerable to the sovereign credit risk and therefore more safe, helping to restore confidence in the real economy.Originality/valueContribution in terms of methodology and conclusions. It offers important conclusions regarding the limitations of yields and volatility of CDS spreads. It examines the spillover effects of the fiscal situation of Eurozone countries on banking institutions by extending the existing methodology and introducing new questions focusing on the reaction of CDS market to the ECB monetary policy, the reduction of risk premiums at sovereign and banking level and the gradual reduction of interdependence between them.


2009 ◽  
pp. 9-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Kudrin

The article examines the causes of origin and manifestation of the current global financial crisis and the policies adopted in developed countries in 2007—2008 to deal with it. It considers the effects of the financial crisis on Russia’s economy and monetary policy of the Central Bank in the current conditions as well as the main guidelines for the fiscal policy under different energy prices. The measures for fighting the crisis that the Russian government and the Central Bank use to support the real economy are described.


Author(s):  
Yilmaz Akyüz

The preceding chapters have examined the deepened integration of emerging and developing economies (EDEs) into the international financial system in the new millennium and their changing vulnerabilities to external financial shocks. They have discussed the role that policies in advanced economies played in this process, including those that culminated in the global financial crisis and the unconventional monetary policy of zero-bound interest rates and quantitative easing adopted in response to the crisis, as well as policies in EDEs themselves....


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