Evolution and decision model of major infectious disease based on Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

Author(s):  
Xiaojiao Qiao ◽  
Xunqing Wang ◽  
Fangchao Xu
2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuanbo Chu ◽  
Zhaohui Yuan ◽  
Jia Chen

The jet pipe servo valve is widely used in the military fields of aviation and ship, whose reliability has obvious randomness and dynamic. However, existing methods are either having complicated theory or analyzing static reliability. Based on the generalized stochastic petri nets (GSPN) theory and the collected basic failure modes and failure rate data of jet pipe servo valve, this paper proposes a novel modeling and simulating method for system’s dynamic behavior analysis. In this method, the dynamic reliability model considering failure’s random and repair is established and is simulated using GSPN software. Then, the steady state probability of servo valve is calculated, which is compared with the value calculated by Markov method. Finally, the dynamic reliability parameters of jet pipe servo valve are calculated using collected failure rate data and different repair rate data. Results show the probability that the maximum error between methods of GSPN and Markov is 2.07%, the optimal repair rate set is less than 1.71µi, and also the dynamic reliability parameters become better with increasing simulation time because of failure’s recovery. Therefore, research methods and results based on GSPN are concise and realistic, which can be used for failure’s qualitative forecast and dynamic reliability’s quantitative calculation of similar complicated system.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document