Modeling and Analyzing Transmission of Infectious Diseases Using Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

Some infectious diseases such as COVID-19 have the characteristics of long incubation period, high infectivity during the incubation period, and carriers with mild or no symptoms which are more likely to cause negligence. Global researchers are working to find out more about the transmission of infectious diseases. Modeling plays a crucial role in understanding the transmission of the new virus and helps show the evolution of the epidemic in stages. In this paper, we propose a new general transmission model of infectious diseases based on the generalized stochastic Petri net (GSPN). First, we qualitatively analyze the transmission mode of each stage of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 and explain the factors that affect the spread of the epidemic. Second, the GSPN model is built to simulate the evolution of the epidemic. Based on this model’s isomorphic Markov chain, the equilibrium state of the system and its changing laws under different influencing factors are analyzed. Our paper demonstrates that the proposed GSPN model is a compelling tool for representing and analyzing the transmission of infectious diseases from system-level understanding, and thus contributes to providing decision support for effective surveillance and response to epidemic development.

Impact of Remediation-Based Maintenance on the Reliability of a Coal-Fired Power Plant Using Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

Rapid changes in electricity power markets have increased the production costs of coal-fired power plants and pushed their production to the limits of profitability. For power plants currently in operation, a possible approach to cope with this issue is to introduce novel methods that increase the plant’s reliability and availability. Coal mills are a subsystem that should ensure a plant’s availability without unexpected breakdowns. Remediation-based maintenance is defined as a set of actions performed after fault detection that do not require instant shutdown due to safety reasons. The aim of this paper was to provide a scientific confirmation that by implementing a novel remediation-based maintenance strategy, electricity production breakdowns can be significantly reduced. First, the performance of the proposed maintenance method was proved in simulation where coal mills were modeled by generalized stochastic Petri nets. The maintenance strategy was then experimentally verified in a 220 MW coal-fired power plant located in Croatia, where the plant’s availability, reliability and efficiency were increased.

The probabilistic model checker Storm

We present the probabilistic model checker Storm. Storm supports the analysis of discrete- and continuous-time variants of both Markov chains and Markov decision processes. Storm has three major distinguishing features. It supports multiple input languages for Markov models, including the Jani and Prism modeling languages, dynamic fault trees, generalized stochastic Petri nets, and the probabilistic guarded command language. It has a modular setup in which solvers and symbolic engines can easily be exchanged. Its Python API allows for rapid prototyping by encapsulating Storm’s fast and scalable algorithms. This paper reports on the main features of Storm and explains how to effectively use them. A description is provided of the main distinguishing functionalities of Storm. Finally, an empirical evaluation of different configurations of Storm on the QComp 2019 benchmark set is presented.

Availability modeling and estimation of Fluid Catalytic Cracking Unit using generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

PurposeThe purpose of this paper to present a practical and systematic approach to estimate the availability of a process plant using generalized stochastic Petri nets (GSPNs). The actual live problem at a fluid catalytic cracking unit (FCCU) of a refinery is used to demonstrate this approach.Design/methodology/approachA majority of models used for estimation of availability of a complex system are based on the assumptions that the failure of the system is associated with only a few states, and the system does not face different operating conditions, repair actions and common-cause failures. In reality, this is often not the case. Therefore, it is necessary to construct more sophisticated models without such assumptions. In this paper, an attempt has been made to model interaction of component failures, partial failures of components and common-cause failures.FindingsThe superiority of this approach over other modeling approaches such as fault tree and Markov analysis is demonstrated. The proposed GSPN is a promising tool that can be conveniently used to model and analyze any complex systems.Practical implicationsGSPN was used to model the reactor-regenerator section of FCCU, which is quite a large system, which shows the strength of modeling capability. The use of Petri nets (PNs) for modeling complex systems for the purpose of availability assessment is demonstrated in this paper. Sensitivity analysis was also carried out for various subsystem/components.Originality/valueNo similar work has been conducted for FCCU using GSPN as per literature incorporating different operating conditions and common-cause failures. The understanding and usage of PNs require a steep learning curve for the practitioners, and this paper provides an approach to estimate availability measures for the complex system.