The paper aims to explore the interconnections between social identities (ethnic, national, regional and religious) and conflict intentions in Tajikistan. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of identity-based conflicts, the paper emphasizes the importance of an early warning system that centers on social identity and shows what impact such factors as national identity building, religious identity revival, and regional identity reinforcement have on processes of conflict prevention, resolution, and reconciliation. Through the examination of the components of the model, including such factors as intergroup prejudice, outgroup threat, identity salience, ingroup primacy, forms of social identity, and modes of identity meaning, the author shows the main threats to peaceful co-existence in Tajikistan.