PROCEDURES TO INCREASE THE VALIDITY OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ESTIMATES

1975 ◽  
Vol 6 (4) ◽  
pp. 721-730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marvin Berhold
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Estimates

Understanding pooled subjective probability estimates

2001 ◽  
Vol 41 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas S. Wallsten ◽  
Adele Diederich
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Estimates

The effects of averaging subjective probability estimates between and within judges.

2000 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 130-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dan Ariely ◽  
Wing Tung Au ◽  
Randall H. Bender ◽  
David V. Budescu ◽  
Christiane B. Dietz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Estimates

The influence of market ecology on market efficiency: Evidence from a speculative financial market

2013 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 186-198
Author(s):  
Ming-Chien Sung ◽  
Johnnie E.V. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Financial Market ◽  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Information Environment ◽  
Logit Models ◽  
Market Segments ◽  
Conditional Logit ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Different Types ◽  
The Impact

This paper explores differences in market ecology in a speculative financial market, the horserace betting market, and examines the impact these variations have on the information which returns seeking bettors need to incorporate in their subjective probability estimates. Conditional logit models are employed to demonstrate that different types of data influence the outcome of races distinguished by the degree to which the information environment is benign/hostile to bettors. The results suggest that the degree to which bettors use appropriate information in assessing horses’ winning probabilities is influenced by market ecology and that this in turn affects the degree of efficiency in different market segments.

Subjective probability estimates and confidence ratings.

1969 ◽  
Vol 79 (3, Pt.1) ◽  
pp. 438-444 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee Roy Beach ◽  
James A. Wise
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Confidence Ratings

Evaluating and Combining Subjective Probability Estimates

1997 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 243-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
THOMAS S. WALLSTEN ◽  
DAVID V. BUDESCU ◽  
IDO EREV ◽  
ADELE DIEDERICH
Keyword(s):  
Subjective Probability ◽  
Probability Estimates
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