Subjective probability is modulated by emotions

Information about risks and probabilities is ubiquitous in our environment, forming the basis for decisions in an uncertain world. Emotions are known to modulate subjective probability assessments when probabilistic information is emotionally valenced. Yet little is known about the role of emotions in subjective probability assessment of affectively neutral events. We investigated this in one correlational study (Study 1, N = 162) and one experimental study (Study 2, N = 119). As predicted, we found that emotional dominance modulated the degree of conservatism in respondents’ neutral probability estimates. Remarkably, this pattern also transferred to realistic risk assessments. Furthermore, respondents’ tendency to use the representativeness heuristic as a proxy for probability was increased in high dominance individuals. Our findings highlight the importance of considering emotions, particularly the little-understood emotion dimension dominance, in research on probabilistic cognition.

When alternative hypotheses shape your beliefs: Context effects in probability judgments

When people are asked to estimate the probability of an event occurring, they sometimes make different subjective probability (SP) judgments for different descriptions of the same event. This implies the evidence or support recruited to make SPs is based on the descriptions of the events (hypotheses) instead of the events themselves, as captured by Tversky and Koehler's (1994) support theory. However, is the support assigned to a hypothesis invariant, as support theory assumes? Here, across two studies where participants were asked to estimate the probability that an event would occur, we show that the support people recruit about the target hypothesis also depends on the other hypotheses under consideration. The first study shows that the presence of a distractor---a hypothesis objectively dominated by the target hypothesis---boosts the SP assigned to the target hypothesis. The second study shows that the presence of a resembler---a hypothesis that is objectively similar to the target hypothesis---detracts more from the SP assigned to the target hypothesis than the competing hypothesis. These context effects invalidate the regularity and the strong independence assumptions of support theory and more generally suggest a similar process that drives the construction of preference also underlies belief.

Entrepreneurial Career Probabilities of Adolescents

Introduction: The extent of new enterprise creation is a key driver contributing to economic, social, individual, and cultural values. Given a relatively low rate of Total Early-stage Entrepreneurial Activity (TEA) in Germany, an understanding of the predictors of adolescent entrepreneurial career preferences is critical in developing ways to foster the interest of young people in entrepreneurship. Although the late precursors of the intention to become self-employed are largely understood, only a few studies have investigated which early individual-level factors affect the subjective probability of becoming an entrepreneur. Objective: The objective of the current study is to identify and statistically examine personality factors that affect the subjective probability of adolescents becoming entrepreneurs. Methods: Based on the German Socio-Economic Panel, we employed logistic regression to research the dependence of the variable “probability of becoming self-employed” on independent variables such as gender, locus of control (LoC), and personality traits for German adolescents aged between 16–17 years. Results: The study reveals a positive influence of the personality traits conscientiousness, extraversion, and LoC on the probability of being self-employed for German adolescents aged between 16–17 years. Agreeableness and neuroticism were found to have no significant effect on the subjective probability of adolescents becoming entrepreneurs, and openness was found to have no significant impact on high likelihood of being self-employed. For adolescents, being female has a significant impact only on a medium probability to be self-employed. Conclusion: To the current body of personality models explaining early adolescent entrepreneurial career preferences, we contribute a model which refers to a representative sample of adolescents in German society.

Choosing increases the value of non-instrumental information

Curiosity pervades all aspects of human behaviour and decision-making. Recent research indicates that the value of information is determined by its propensity to reduce uncertainty, and the hedonic value of the outcomes it predicts. Previous findings also indicate a preference for options that are freely chosen, compared to equivalently valued alternatives that are externally assigned. Here, we asked whether the value of information also varies as a function of self- or externally-imposed choices. Participants rated their preference for information that followed either a self-chosen decision, or an externally imposed condition. Our results showed that choosing a lottery significantly increased the subjective value of information about the outcome. Computational modelling indicated that this change in information-seeking behaviour was not due to changes in the subjective probability of winning, but instead reflected an independent effect of choosing on the value of resolving uncertainty. These results demonstrate that agency over a prospect is an important source of information value.

Effect of knowledge differentiation and state space partitioning on subjective probability estimation

A common technique for eliciting subjective probabilities is to provide a set of exclusive and exhaustive events and ask the assessor to estimate the probabilities of such events. However, such subjective probabilities estimations are usually subjected to a bias known as the partition dependence bias. This study aims to investigate the effect of state space partitioning and the level of knowledge on subjective probability estimations. The state space is partitioned into full, collapsed, and pruned trees, while the knowledge is manipulated into low and high levels. A scenario called “Best Bank Award” was developed and a 2 × 3 experimental design was employed to explore the effect of the level of knowledge and the partitioning of the state space on the subjective probability. A total of 627 professionals participated in the study and 543 valid responses were used for analysis. The results of two-way ANOVA with the Tukey HSD test for post hoc analysis indicate a mean probability of 24.2% for the full tree, which is significantly lower than those of the collapsed (35.7%) as well as pruned (36.3%) trees. Moreover, there is significant difference in the mean probabilities between the low (38.1%) and high (24.9%) knowledge levels. The results support the hypotheses that the partitioning of the state space as well as the level of knowledge affects subjective probability estimation. The study demonstrates that regardless of the level of knowledge, the partition dependence bias is robust. However, the subjective probability accuracy improves with more knowledge.

Insufficient declines in new HIV infection rates amidst high scores in HIV testing and awareness: ‘a game theory simulation’

Aim Substantial progress has been made towards the 90–90–90 global targets; however, the pace at which new infections are declining remains undesirable to meet the UNAIDS 2020 global targets of below 500,000 new infections annually. We discussed the possibility of continued HIV incidence amidst remarkable scores in the 90–90–90 global targets. Subject and methods A game theory simulation was used to explain micro-level sexual interactions in situations of imperfect information on each partner’s HIV status. A non-cooperative sex game tree was constructed following the Harsanyi transformation in two scenarios; scenario one: a player assigns higher subjective probability that the partner is HIV negative; and in scenario two: a player assigns higher subjective probability that the partner is HIV positive. Subjective expected utilities were computed using hypothetical payoffs. Results Accepting unprotected sex is a pure strategy for both players in scenario 1. Player2 is likely to acquire HIV/AIDS. Accepting protected sex is a mixed strategy equilibrium for both players in scenario 2. Player2 is likely to avoid HIV infection. Conclusion Choice for safe or risky sex is a function of subjective probabilities individuals attach to their partners being infected or uninfected. More efforts towards addressing factors affecting individual probability distributions on riskiness of their sexual partners is required, especially for young women in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities

As policy makers require more rigorous assessments for the strength of evidence in Theory-Based evaluations, Bayesian logic is attracting increasing interest; however, the estimation of probabilities that this logic (almost) inevitably requires presents challenges. Probabilities can be estimated on the basis of empirical frequencies, but such data are often unavailable for most mechanisms that are objects of evaluation. Subjective probability elicitation techniques are well established in other fields and potentially applicable, but they present potential challenges and might not always be feasible. We introduce the community to a third way: simulated probabilities. We provide proof of concept that simulation can be used to estimate probabilities in diagnostic evaluation and illustrate our case with an application to health policy.