Major incident declared at two London hospitals after severe flooding

BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. n1885
Author(s):  
Shaun Griffin
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin Horsburgh ◽  
Ivan D. Haigh ◽  
Jane Williams ◽  
Michela De Dominicis ◽  
Judith Wolf ◽  
...  

AbstractIn this paper, we show that over the next few decades, the natural variability of mid-latitude storm systems is likely to be a more important driver of coastal extreme sea levels than either mean sea level rise or climatically induced changes to storminess. Due to their episodic nature, the variability of local sea level response, and our short observational record, understanding the natural variability of storm surges is at least as important as understanding projected long-term mean sea level changes due to global warming. Using the December 2013 North Atlantic Storm Xaver as a baseline, we used a meteorological forecast modification tool to create “grey swan” events, whilst maintaining key physical properties of the storm system. Here we define “grey swan” to mean an event which is expected on the grounds of natural variability but is not within the observational record. For each of these synthesised storm events, we simulated storm tides and waves in the North Sea using hydrodynamic models that are routinely used in operational forecasting systems. The grey swan storms produced storm surges that were consistently higher than those experienced during the December 2013 event at all analysed tide gauge locations along the UK east coast. The additional storm surge elevations obtained in our simulations are comparable to high-end projected mean sea level rises for the year 2100 for the European coastline. Our results indicate strongly that mid-latitude storms, capable of generating more extreme storm surges and waves than ever observed, are likely due to natural variability. We confirmed previous observations that more extreme storm surges in semi-enclosed basins can be caused by slowing down the speed of movement of the storm, and we provide a novel explanation in terms of slower storm propagation allowing the dynamical response to approach equilibrium. We did not find any significant changes to maximum wave heights at the coast, with changes largely confined to deeper water. Many other regions of the world experience storm surges driven by mid-latitude weather systems. Our approach could therefore be adopted more widely to identify physically plausible, low probability, potentially catastrophic coastal flood events and to assist with major incident planning.


BMJ ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 349 (nov17 19) ◽  
pp. g6891-g6891
Author(s):  
Z. Kmietowicz

2009 ◽  
Vol 26 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 19-19
Author(s):  
S. Carley ◽  
J. F. Knight ◽  
B. Tregunna ◽  
S. Jarvis ◽  
R. Smithies ◽  
...  

2015 ◽  
Vol 97 (7) ◽  
pp. e26-e28
Author(s):  
H Willmott ◽  
RNS Slater ◽  
N Kurek ◽  
JE Nicholl
Keyword(s):  

Simple measures that hospitals should start taking.


2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 418-432 ◽  
Author(s):  
David K Allen ◽  
Stan Karanasios ◽  
Alistair Norman

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Roseveare ◽  

The snow and freezing temperatures will hopefully have passed by the time this edition reaches you; the sight of daffodils may be asignal that the relief of spring is not far off. Winter frequently stretches AMU resources to the limit – in recent years we have had epidemics of seasonal and swine f lu, but this year Norovirus seems to have been the bigger challenge. Ward closures from diarrhoea outbreaks have traditionally been more of a ‘downstream’ problem (no pun intended), but the impact of closure of the AMU would be substantial.At the time of writing this has still, thankfully, been avoided in my own hospital; however it remains a circumstance for which we have to be prepared. This edition’s ‘Viewpoint’ article describes how temporary closure of the AMU was managed in a London hospital. The use of an empty ‘winter pressures ward’ eased the burden in this case, enabling the AMU service to be maintained. Even with the luxury of this spare capacity, there was clearly significant disruption, requiring close collaboration between a variety of departments, which is well described by the authors. Many hospitals have become highly dependent on a functioning AMU to provide timely, safe and effective care for medical emergencies. Major incident plans are in place to deal with mass casualty incidents; we need to consider similar contingencies to deal with AMU closure if patient safety is going to be maintained. This article is a timely reminder of the need for forward planning. Maintaining patient safety is a mantra which will be familiar to acute physicians, particularly those who attended any of the recent SAM meetings, where this theme has been well rehearsed. An acute medical unit can provide significant safety benefits by concentrating resources in a single area. However, for the 60% who cannot go directly home from the AMU, this model creates the need for care to be transferred at some point. It is well recognised that transfer is a time at which patient safety can become compromised; so if safety is our mantra, acute physicians and nurses have a responsibility to manage this process effectively. The article by David Hindmash and Liz Lees provides an important addition to the limited literature in this area. Structured checklists are becoming an increasing part of medical practice; this paper highlights how a checklist can be used to improve the quality of handover from AMU. The authors emphasise the need to keep the form simple, and the importance of regular reinforcement to ensure that it is used. What skills and attributes does an acute physician require? With interview season approaching it’s a question that many prospective trainees will be contemplating – remaining calm under pressure, communication skills and teamworking are some of the standard responses; but what about a good sense of smell? Most of us recognise the characteristic odour of melaena , or the whiff of infected urine. But the absence of body odour might be equally revealing. Luther and Yap noted their patient to be ‘remarkably clean’ – unusual, perhaps, for a young male patient on the AMU; along with his persistent demands to use the showering facilities, this was a clue to the final diagnosis of Cannabis Hyperemesis Syndrome.It’s a case worth reading and highlights the importance of lateral thinking, particularly when patients repeatedly attend – as well as having a ‘good nose’ to sniff out something unusual!


2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (12) ◽  
pp. A860.2-A861 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Vassallo ◽  
Jason Smith
Keyword(s):  

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