severe flooding
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2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
pp. 399-406
Author(s):  
Y. I. Melnikov

The problem of criteria for distinguishing colonies from similar socio-demographic structures (mainly in terms of nesting density) is highly relevant and has remained in the focus of attention of ornithologists for a long time. The synchronization of reproduction in a colony is one of the criteria which require special development. Based on particular works (1972–2005), I present synchronization of the reproduction of gulls in colonies of different sizes. In contrast to previous studies, this paper uses a specially developed Index of Synchronization of Bird Breeding (Isr) to study this phenomenon, making it relatively easy to determine its level. The index distinguishes between different species of birds of this group: 75.7% (white-winged black tern) and 97.6% (black-headed gull) of the total variability of synchronization of breeding birds in colonies. Frequent failure of nesting attempts often causes repeated (compensatory) reproduction, which in the case of a mass manifestation significantly reduces the synchronization of the nesting period in colonies and thus significantly reduces this indicator. It is proved that a higher synchronization of reproduction characterizes small colonies (up to 50 nests). In all species of gulls, the beginning of reproduction in different colonies differs in terms of the appearance of the first eggs by 1–10 days and at the beginning of mass egg-laying – by 1–18 days. To the same extent, they differ in the timing of the hatching of eggs. In small colonies, the total egg-laying period is shorter by 34.9–49.7% compared to larger colonies. My observations show that large colonies are formed by the nesting of several small colonies on one plot. This phenomenon is noticeable during periods of mass re-nesting of birds after a high loss of nests (up to 69.5% or more) because of severe flooding. Differences in the breeding periods of colonies that differ in size appear when several small colonies with different breeding periods of birds are combined into one larger colony. This phenomenon is well detected in the formation of several sub-colonies and in the differences in the timing of reproduction of different parts of a large colony.


Author(s):  
Ross M Boyce ◽  
Brandon D Hollingsworth ◽  
Emma Baguma ◽  
Erin Xu ◽  
Varun Goel ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Malaria epidemics are a well-described phenomenon after extreme precipitation and flooding, which account for nearly half of global disasters over the past two decades. Yet few studies have examined mitigation measures to prevent post-flood malaria epidemics. Methods We conducted an evaluation of a malaria chemoprevention program implemented in response to severe flooding in western Uganda. Children ≤12 years of age from one village were eligible to receive 3 monthly rounds of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP). Two neighboring villages served as controls. Malaria cases were defined as individuals with a positive rapid diagnostic test result as recorded in health center registers. We performed a difference-in-differences analysis to estimate changes in the incidence and test positivity of malaria between intervention and control villages. Results A total of 554 children received at least one round of chemoprevention with 75% participating in at least two rounds. Compared to control villages, we estimated a 53.4% reduction (aRR 0.47, 95% CI 0.34 – 0.62, p<.01) in malaria incidence and a 30% decrease in the test positivity rate (aRR=0.70, CI 0.50 - 0.97, p=0.03) in the intervention village in the six months post-intervention. The impact was greatest among children receiving the intervention, but decreased incidence was also observed in older children and adults (aRR=0.57, CI 0.38-0.84, p<.01). Conclusions Three rounds of chemoprevention with DP delivered under pragmatic conditions reduced the incidence of malaria after severe flooding in western Uganda. These findings provide a proof-of-concept for the use of malaria chemoprevention to reduce excess disease burden associated with severe flooding.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bryan Killingsworth ◽  
Huiming Bao ◽  
Issaku Kohl

Riverine dissolved sulfate (SO42−) sulfur and oxygen isotope variations reflect their controls such as SO42− reduction and re-oxidation, and source mixing. However, unconstrained temporal variability of riverine SO42− isotope compositions due to short sampling durations may lead to mischaracterization of SO42− sources, particularly for the pyrite-derived sulfate load. We measured the sulfur and triple-oxygen isotopes (δ34S, δ18O, and ∆’17O) of Mississippi River SO42− with biweekly sampling between 2009-2013 to test isotopic variability and constrain sources. Sulfate δ34S and δ18O ranged from −6.3‰ to −0.2‰ and −3.6‰ to +8.8‰, respectively. Our sampling period captured the most severe flooding and drought in the Mississippi River basin since 1927 and 1956, respectively, and a first year of sampling that was unrepresentative of long-term average SO42−. The δ34SSO4 data indicate pyrite-derived SO42− sources are 74 ±10% of the Mississippi River sulfate budget. Furthermore, pyrite oxidation is implicated as the dominant process supplying SO42− to the Mississippi River, whereas the ∆’17OSO4 data shows 18 ±9% of oxygen in this sulfate is sourced from air O2.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenchao Ma ◽  
Yuta Ishitsuka ◽  
Akira Takeshima ◽  
Kenshi Hibino ◽  
Dai Yamazaki ◽  
...  

AbstractFloods can be devastating in densely populated regions along rivers, so attaining a longer forecast lead time with high accuracy is essential for protecting people and property. Although many techniques are used to forecast floods, sufficient validation of the use of a forecast system for operational alert purposes is lacking. In this study, we validated the flooding locations and times of dike breaking that had occurred during Typhoon Hagibis, which caused severe flooding in Japan in 2019. To achieve the goal of the study, we combined a hydrodynamic model with statistical analysis under forcing by a 39-h prediction of the Japan Meteorological Agency's Meso-scale model Grid Point Value (MSM-GPV) and obtained dike-break times for all flooded locations for validation. The results showed that this method was accurate in predicting floods at 130 locations, approximately 91.6% of the total of 142 flooded locations, with a lead time of approximately 32.75 h. In terms of precision, these successfully predicted locations accounted for 24.0% of the total of 542 locations under a flood warning, and on average, the predicted flood time was approximately 8.53 h earlier than a given dike-break time. More warnings were issued for major rivers with severe flooding, indicating that the system is sensitive to extreme flood events and can issue warnings for rivers subject to high risk of flooding.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Leandro ◽  
Shane Cunneff ◽  
Lorenz Viernstein

Of many defining characteristics for a flood resilient city and its infrastructure networks, mitigating flooding impacts and recovering quickly to a pre-flood state are to be considered of high importance. With a likely increase in the frequency and intensity of future heavy precipitation and flooding events in Europe, the vulnerability of the electrical distribution network of Maxvorstadt, Munich will also increase. These facts justify the need for quantifying how the electrical distribution network would respond to flooding, and more so, how stakeholders can better prepare for such an event. For a synthetic electrical distribution network of Maxvorstadt, the timing and location of network components failure due to flooding and affected persons without power have been computed for a combination of realistic future flooding events via the Electrical Network Flood Resilience Model developed in this study. It has been learned that most buildings, and therefore their inhabitants, lose power due to the failure of a specific component, Medium Voltage—Low Voltage transformer buses, and that flood risk solutions should focus on protecting network components from inundation to ensure its functionality through flooding events. Solutions like dry proofing such components before severe flooding occurs is recommended for several neighborhoods analyzed in this study.


Significance An already stretched and spartan economy has been hammered this year by anti-pandemic curbs which have hit trade, and now by severe flooding. Another typhoon is expected in coming days. Pyongyang has announced a new Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) congress, set for January, to launch a fresh five-year plan. Impacts Media reports that Kim Jong-un is comatose are without evidence and cannot be taken seriously. Claims that Kim is delegating power are misjudged; he seeks to balance key interest groups but remains very much at the helm. Rocket launches remain probable before January. Seoul sources believe Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, is now number two in the hierarchy; clarification of her position is likely soon.


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