BackgroundThe status of lymph nodes in the central compartment is crucial to determining the surgical strategies for papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting central lymph node metastasis (CLNM).MethodsA total of 886 PTC patients who underwent total thyroidectomy or lobectomy with central neck dissection (CND) from July 2019 to June 2020 were retrospectively retrieved. Clinical and ultrasound features were collected. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to determine risk factors of CLNM. A nomogram for predicting CLNM was developed, internal and external calibration was performed for the established model.ResultsVariables (sex, chronic lymphocytic thyroiditis, tumor size, the number of foci, tumor location, margin) significantly associated with CLNM were included in the nomogram. The nomogram showed excellent calibration in the training group and validation group, with area under curves of 0.806 (95% CI, 0.771 to 0.825), and 0.799 (95% CI, 0.778–0.813) respectively.ConclusionThrough this accurate and easy-to-use nomogram, the possibility of CLNM can be objectively quantified preoperatively. Clinicians can use this nomogram to evaluate the status of lymph nodes in PTC patients and consider prophylactic CND for those with high scores.
Analyze and compare the predictors of ipsilateral central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma with cT1a and cT1b stage
