Subject
Outlook for maritime security in West Africa.
Significance
According to International Maritime Bureau (IMB) statistics, reported incidents of pirate attacks in the Gulf of Guinea are declining. From January to September 2015, 24 incidents occurred, against 33 in 2014 and 47 in 2013. However, the IMB acknowledges that the actual number could be much higher, posing significant threats to regional trade, 90% of which is conducted by sea.
Impacts
China's planned base in Djibouti will help its anti-piracy missions in the Gulf of Aden, while raising concerns on its military aims.
The AU maritime security summit in March 2016 will probably produce new anti-piracy commitments, but implementation will lag.
Nigeria's planned 'rehabilitation' programmes for former Niger Delta militants are unlikely to dissuade them from illicit activities.
Its navy's recent signing of 29 deals with private firms for security services will augment its improved hardware and surveillance capacity.