Markov chain Monte Carlo for petrophysical inversion

Geophysics ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-60
Author(s):  
Dario Grana ◽  
Leandro de Figueiredo ◽  
Klaus Mosegaard

Stochastic petrophysical inversion is a method to predict reservoir properties from seismic data. Recent advances in stochastic optimization allow generating multiple realizations of rock and fluid properties conditioned on seismic data. To match the measured data and represent the uncertainty of the model variables, a large number of realizations is generally required. Stochastic sampling and optimization of spatially correlated models are computationally demanding. Monte Carlo methods allow quantifying the uncertainty of the model variables but are impractical for high-dimensional models with spatially correlated variables. We propose a Bayesian approach based on an efficient implementation of the Markov chain Monte Carlo method for the inversion of seismic data for the prediction of reservoir properties. The proposed Bayesian approach includes an explicit vertical correlation model in the proposal distribution. It is applied trace by trace and the lateral continuity model is imposed by using the previously simulated values at the adjacent traces as conditioning data for simulating the initial model at the current trace. The methodology is first presented for a one-dimensional problem to test the vertical correlation and it is extended to two-dimensional problems by including the lateral correlation and comparing two novel implementations based on sequential sampling. The proposed method is applied to synthetic data to estimate the posterior distribution of the petrophysical properties conditioned on the measured seismic data. The results are compared with a McMC implementation without lateral correlation and demonstrate the advantage of integrating a spatial correlation model.

2017 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 1661-1666
Author(s):  
EssamO. Abdel-Rahman ◽  
Mahmoud Elmezain ◽  
Zohair.S.A. Malki ◽  
GamalA. Abd-Elmougod

2003 ◽  
Vol 35 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Schultz ◽  
Burkhard Büdel

AbstractThe systematic position of the lichen genus Heppia in the order Lichinales was investigated. 18S rDNA sequence data were analyzed using a Bayesian approach to infer phylogeny using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The Lichinales are divided at family level into the sister groups Lichinaceae and Peltulaceae. The genus Heppia forms a highly supported clade in the family Lichinaceae. It is shown that the genus Heppia is morphologically well circumscribed within the Lichinaceae. As a nomenclatural consequence, the family name Heppiaceae is placed into synonymy under the older name Lichinaceae.


d'CARTESIAN ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Dewi Lukitasari ◽  
Adi Setiawan ◽  
Leopoldus Ricky Sasangko

Paper ini membahas mengenai estimasi parameter model Weibull-Regression untuk data tersensor pada kasus ketahanan hidup pasien penderita jantung koroner dengan pendekatan Bayesian survival analysis. Data yang digunakan adalah data simulasi waktu hidup pasien, status pasien (hidup/mati) dan treatment yang dikenakan yaitu ring dan bypass. Pendekatan Bayesian (Bayesian approach) digunakan untuk mencari distribusi posterior parameter.  Metode Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) digunakan untuk membangkitkan Rantai Markov guna mengestimasi parameter meliputi koefisien regresi (b) dan parameter r dari model survival Weibull. Parameter b dan r yang diperoleh digunakan untuk menghitung fungsi survival tiap pasien untuk tiap treatment yang sekaligus menunjukkan probabilitas bertahan hidup pasien penderita jantung koroner. Kata Kunci : Bayesian,  Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Model Weibull-Regression, Survival Analysis


SPE Journal ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 25 (01) ◽  
pp. 001-036 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Li ◽  
Albert C. Reynolds

Summary Generating an estimate of uncertainty in production forecasts has become nearly standard in the oil industry, but is often performed with procedures that yield at best a highly approximate uncertainty quantification. Formally, the uncertainty quantification of a production forecast can be achieved by generating a correct characterization of the posterior probability-density function (PDF) of reservoir-model parameters conditional to dynamic data and then sampling this PDF correctly. Although Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) provides a theoretically rigorous method for sampling any target PDF that is known up to a normalizing constant, in reservoir-engineering applications, researchers have found that it might require extraordinarily long chains containing millions to hundreds of millions of states to obtain a correct characterization of the target PDF. When the target PDF has a single mode or has multiple modes concentrated in a small region, it might be possible to implement a proposal distribution dependent on a random walk so that the resulting MCMC algorithm derived from the Metropolis-Hastings acceptance probability can yield a good characterization of the posterior PDF with a computationally feasible chain length. However, for a high-dimensional multimodal PDF with modes separated by large regions of low or zero probability, characterizing the PDF with MCMC using a random walk is not computationally feasible. Although methods such as population MCMC exist for characterizing a multimodal PDF, their computational cost generally makes the application of these algorithms far too costly for field application. In this paper, we design a new proposal distribution using a Gaussian mixture PDF for use in MCMC where the posterior PDF can be multimodal with the modes spread far apart. Simply put, the method generates modes using a gradient-based optimization method and constructs a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) to use as the basic proposal distribution. Tests on three simple problems are presented to establish the validity of the method. The performance of the new MCMC algorithm is compared with that of random-walk MCMC and is also compared with that of population MCMC for a target PDF that is multimodal.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document