Non-Gaussian State-Space Model

2010 ◽  
pp. 227-244
2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 167-180 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig J. Johns ◽  
Robert H. Shumway

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 159-169
Author(s):  
Xiangdong Liu ◽  
Xianglong Li ◽  
Shaozhi Zheng ◽  
Hangyong Qian

AbstractA parameter estimation method, called PMCMC in this paper, is proposed to estimate a continuous-time model of the term structure of interests under Markov regime switching and jumps. There is a closed form solution to term structure of interest rates under Markov regime. However, the model is extended to be a CKLS model with non-closed form solutions which is a typical nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space model(SSM) in the case of adding jumps. Although the difficulty of parameter estimation greatly prevents from researching models, we prove that the nonlinear and non-Gaussian state-space model has better performances in studying volatility. The method proposed in this paper will be implemented in simulation and empirical study for SHIBOR. Empirical results illustrate that the PMCMC algorithm has powerful advantages in tackling the models.


Entropy ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 117
Author(s):  
Xuyou Li ◽  
Yanda Guo ◽  
Qingwen Meng

The maximum correntropy Kalman filter (MCKF) is an effective algorithm that was proposed to solve the non-Gaussian filtering problem for linear systems. Compared with the original Kalman filter (KF), the MCKF is a sub-optimal filter with Gaussian correntropy objective function, which has been demonstrated to have excellent robustness to non-Gaussian noise. However, the performance of MCKF is affected by its kernel bandwidth parameter, and a constant kernel bandwidth may lead to severe accuracy degradation in non-stationary noises. In order to solve this problem, the mixture correntropy method is further explored in this work, and an improved maximum mixture correntropy KF (IMMCKF) is proposed. By derivation, the random variables that obey Beta-Bernoulli distribution are taken as intermediate parameters, and a new hierarchical Gaussian state-space model was established. Finally, the unknown mixing probability and state estimation vector at each moment are inferred via a variational Bayesian approach, which provides an effective solution to improve the applicability of MCKFs in non-stationary noises. Performance evaluations demonstrate that the proposed filter significantly improves the existing MCKFs in non-stationary noises.


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