scholarly journals New evidence on the effectiveness of interventions in the foreign exchange market in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Fernando Nascimento Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Continuous Time ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Conditional Mean ◽  
Exchange Rate Intervention ◽  
New Evidence

<p>This paper discusses the effectiveness in Brazil of the traditional instrument of exchange rate intervention (spot interventions) as well as an instrument based on exchange rate derivatives (foreign exchange swaps). We show that these instruments are capable of affecting the conditional mean of the process of the nominal exchange rate throughout our sample period, from January 2006 to April 2016. Our results are robust to different techniques of estimation (GMM in continuous time and in discrete time), specifications and sample periods.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?

2001 ◽  
Vol 39 (3) ◽  
pp. 839-868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucio Sarno ◽  
Mark P Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Coordination Failure ◽  
Exchange Rate Intervention

Our paper assesses progress made by the profession in understanding whether and how exchange rate intervention works. We review theory and evidence on official intervention, concentrating primarily on work published in the last decade or so. We conclude that, unlike the profession's consensus of the 1980s, official intervention can be effective, especially as a signal of policy intentions and when publicly announced and concerted. We note an apparent empirical puzzle concerning the secrecy of much intervention and suggest another way for intervention to be effective which has received little attention in the literature, namely by remedying a coordination failure in the foreign exchange market.

scholarly journals Pressure Measurement on the Foreign Exchange Market and Currency Crises in Morocco

2021 ◽  
pp. 49-61
Author(s):  
ICHOU Mohammed Adil ◽  
RASSAM Driss ◽  
ABBADI Idriss ◽  
ELHIRI Abderrazak
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Pressure Index ◽  
Market Pressure

This article aims to assess the pressure upon the official currency of the Kingdom of Morocco - the Dirham - and to detect the periods of crisis on the foreign exchange market. Several methods can be used for this purpose especially the Exchange Market Pressure Index, which is considered as an excellent predictive indicator that takes into account both changes in nominal exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves. In term of results, the pressures on the Moroccan foreign exchange market stem mainly from a substantial decrease in foreign exchange reserves combined with a high deficit of the current account of the balance of payments deficit. In the last part of this article, a logistic model was used to forecast the EMPI for the end of the year 2020. The results of this modeling showed that the pressure on the Moroccan foreign exchange market remained generally under control during the year, although its signs could be felt particularly in the fourth quarter. These results were corroborated by the 2020 officially published figures. Keywords: Foreign exchange market, Exchange Market Pressure Index, Exchange rate, Foreign exchange reserves.

scholarly journals BITCOIN-USD TRADING USING SVM TO DETECT THE CURRENT DAY’S TREND IN THE MARKET

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-77
Author(s):  
Ferdiansyah Ferdiansyah ◽  
Edi Surya Negara ◽  
Yeni Widyanti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Develop Model ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Prediction Tool ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Support Vector Classifier

Cryptocurrency trade is now a popular type of investment. Cryptocurrency market has been treated similar to foreign exchange and stock market. The Characteristics of Bitcoin have made Bitcoin keep rising In the last few years. Bitcoin exchange rate to American Dollar (USD) is $3990 USD on November 2018, with daily pice fluctuations could reach 4.55%2. It is important to able to predict value to ensure profitable investment. However, because of its volatility, there’s a need for a prediction tool for investors to help them consider investment decisions for cryptocurrency trade. Nowadays, computing based tools are commonly used in stock and foreign exchange market predictions. There has been much research about SVM prediction on stocks and foreign exchange as case studies but none on cryptocurrency. Therefore, this research studied method to predict the market value of one of the most used cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. The preditct methods will be used on this research is regime prediction to develop model to predict the close value of Bitcoin and use Support vector classifier algorithm to predict the current day’s trend at the opening of the market

scholarly journals HEDGING CURRENCY RISKS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS USING THE OPPORTUNITIES OF THE INTERNATIONAL FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Liegostaieva
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
International Business ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Currency Risk ◽  
Exchange Rate Fluctuations ◽  
Current Value ◽  
Financial Result

The article is devoted to the study of currency risk hedging in international business. The article notes that the international foreign exchange market is the largest and fastest growing of all world markets. The characteristic features of the international currency market are substantiated and offered. It is also noted that foreign exchange transactions provide economic ties between participants located on different sides of state borders: settlements between firms from different countries for the supply of goods and services, foreign investment, international tourism and business travel. It is determined that hedging of currency risks is the protection of funds from the unfavorable movement of exchange rates, and is carried out in fixing the current value of funds by concluding an agreement on the foreign exchange market. When hedging, the risk of exchange rate changes disappears, and this makes it possible to forecast the company's activities and see the financial result, which is not distorted by exchange rate fluctuations, which will allow you to determine product prices, calculate profits, etc. The main difference between hedging and other types of transactions is that its purpose is not to generate additional profits, but to reduce the risk of potential losses, as risk reduction is almost always necessary to pay, hedging, of course, involves additional costs. Hedging is a way to improve business planning. An enterprise wishing to use this service shall pledge the specified amount, from which losses on its positions will be deducted. In today's conditions, thanks to the foreign exchange market, there is a very reliable way to hedge currency risk. This method is to fix the current value of funds by concluding agreements in this market. With hedging, the company eliminates the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, and this allows you to forecast activities and see the financial result, which is not changed by exchange rate fluctuations. Allows you to pre-determine product prices, determine profits, etc. Thus, the principle of hedging in international business is to open a currency position in a foreign currency account for future transactions to convert funds.

Optimistic and pessimistic economic sentiments and US Dollar exchange rate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Kumari ◽  
Suresh Kumar Oad Rajput ◽  
Rana Yassir Hussain ◽  
Jahanzeb Marwat ◽  
Haroon Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study investigates the affiliation of various proxies of economic sentiments and the US Dollar exchange rate, mainly focusing on the real effective exchange rate of USD pairing with three other major currencies (USDEUR, USDGBP, and USDCAD). The study has employed Google Trends data of economy optimistic and pessimistic sentiments index and survey-based economy sentiments data on monthly basis from January 2004 to December 2018. The study engaged Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of economy-related sentiments and macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate. The results from the study found that Economy Optimistic Sentiments Index (EOSI) and Economy Pessimistic Sentiments Index (EPSI) appreciate and depreciate the US Dollar exchange rate in the short-run, respectively. Our sentiment measures are robust to survey-based Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MSCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and various macroeconomic factors. The MSCI and CCI sentiments show a long-term impact on the foreign exchange market. This study implies that economic sentiments play a vital role in the foreign exchange market and it is essential to consider behavioral aspects when modeling the exchange rate movements.

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