Mexico oil sector plans look highly optimistic

Significance The aim is for all production to be processed at Pemex refineries, and for petrol imports to be eliminated from 2023, making Mexico’s oil sector completely self-sufficient. Impacts The zero-exports strategy may prompt further downgrading of Pemex’s debt by rating agencies. Reduced oil exports would push Mexico’s trade and current accounts into deeper deficits, affecting the peso-dollar exchange rate. Crude export reduction by Mexico would have little to no effect on international prices.

Impact of US dollar exchange rate and inflation on profitability

This study aims to examine the significance of the effect of the dollar exchange rate and inflation on the profitability of PT. Pupuk Sriwidjaja Palembang. Profitability in this study is measured by return on assets (ROA) with the research period from 2014-2020. The data analysis technique for testing the hypothesis in this study used multiple linear regression. The study results concluded that the dollar exchange rate and inflation had a significant positive effect on the profitability (ROA) of PT. Pupuk Sriwidjaja Palembang during 2014-2020.

Forecasting Automobile Sales in Turkey with Artificial Neural Networks

This study aims to reveal significant factors which affect automobile sales and estimate the automobile sales in Turkey by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN), ARIMA, and time series decomposition techniques. The forecasting model includes automobile sales, automobile price, Euro and Dollar exchange rate, employment rate, consumer confidence index, oil prices and industrial production confidence index, the probability of buying an automobile, female employment rate, general economic situation, the expectation of general economic situation, financial status of households, expectation of financial status of households. According to the regression results, changes in Dollar exchange rate, the expectation of financial status of households, seasonally adjusted industrial production index, logarithmic form of automobile sales before-one-month which have a significant effect on automobile sales, are found to be the significant variables. The results show that ANN has a better estimation performance with MAPE=1.18% and RMSE=782 values than ARIMA and time series decomposition techniques.

Modelling the Botswana Pula/Us Dollar exchange rate using the Skewed generalized t (SGT) distributions

The economy of Botswana heavily relies on mineral exports (mainly diamond exports), which are largely dependent on the exchange rate. And, the US Dollar is one of the most important currencies in the basket of currencies to which the Botswana Pula is pegged. Therefore, this paper seeks to empirically establish the baseline characteristics of the Botswana Pula (BWP) and the US Dollar (USD) exchange rate and to identify the most plausible probability distribution from the skewed generalized t (SGT) family that can be used to model the log-returns of the daily BWP/USD exchange rates for the period January 2001 to December 2020. The SGT family is a highly versatile class of models that can capture the skewness and kleptokurticity that are inherent in financial time series. Four probability distributions are considered in this study: skewed t, skewed generalized error, generalized t and skewed generalized t. The maximum likelihood approach is used to estimate the parameters of each model. Model comparison and selection are based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The results of the study show that the daily BWP/USD exchange rate series is nonnormal, negatively skewed heavy-tailed. It is also found that, based on the values of both the AIC and BIC, the model that gives the best fit to the data is the skewed t, which is closely followed by the skewed generalized error distribution, while the generalized t gives the worst fit. Keywords: Pula/US Dollar exchange rate, log returns, Generalized t distribution, Skewed generalized error distribution, Skewed generalized t distribution, Skewed t distribution, skewness, kurtosis, maximum likelihood

The Impact of the Rupiah/Dollar Exchange Rate, Inflation Against the SBI Interest Rate During the New Normal Period

The Covid 19 pandemic has changed the order of Indonesian society and even the world; to prevent the spread of this virus, a new lifestyle or "New normal" is implemented, in which people can still do activities outside the home while adhering to health protocols. As a result of the economic sector's pandemic condition, the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar fell, as did inflation and interest rate values. The goal of this research is to determine the impact of the Rupiah exchange rate, inflation, and interest rates during the New Normal Period. The New Normal period, as we know, begins in early June 2020, so researchers plan to collect data from June 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021. The information used is skunder data. This study used saturated sampling or a census sample, which is a technique for determining "samples where all members of the population are used as samples." The research method used is quantitative research. The test is a multiple linear regression analysis that begins with a traditional assumption test that includes a normality test and a multicollinearity test. The findings revealed that during the New Normal period, the rupiah/dollar exchange rate had a positive and significant effect on SBI interest rates. During the New Normal period, inflation has a positive and significant impact on SBI interest rates. During the New Normal, the Exchange/Dollar Rate and the Inflation Rate both have a positive effect on the SBI Interest Rate.

Optimistic and pessimistic economic sentiments and US Dollar exchange rate

This study investigates the affiliation of various proxies of economic sentiments and the US Dollar exchange rate, mainly focusing on the real effective exchange rate of USD pairing with three other major currencies (USDEUR, USDGBP, and USDCAD). The study has employed Google Trends data of economy optimistic and pessimistic sentiments index and survey-based economy sentiments data on monthly basis from January 2004 to December 2018. The study engaged Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimation techniques to evaluate the short-run and long-run effects of economy-related sentiments and macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate. The results from the study found that Economy Optimistic Sentiments Index (EOSI) and Economy Pessimistic Sentiments Index (EPSI) appreciate and depreciate the US Dollar exchange rate in the short-run, respectively. Our sentiment measures are robust to survey-based Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MSCI), Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), and various macroeconomic factors. The MSCI and CCI sentiments show a long-term impact on the foreign exchange market. This study implies that economic sentiments play a vital role in the foreign exchange market and it is essential to consider behavioral aspects when modeling the exchange rate movements.

ANALYSIS OF INDONESIAN COFFEE EXPORT PERFORMANCE TO THE GLOBAL MARKET USING VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION (VAR) APPROACH

Coffee is Indonesia's mainstay export commodity in the plantation sector which has provided a lot of income for Indonesia. Over time, Indonesia's coffee exports have fluctuated due to the impact of globalization and other external factors such as world coffee prices, Indonesian coffee production, the US Dollar exchange rate, Brazilian coffee exports and Colombian coffee exports. Based on this, this study aims to analyze the performance of Indonesian coffee exports to the Global Market using time series data over a period of 29 years using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach. The results showed that there were variables that had a short-term and unidirectional relationship with Indonesian coffee exports, namely the US Dollar exchange rate variable, Indonesian coffee production and Brazilian coffee exports.

Spillovers and Dynamic Correlations between REITs, Exchange Rates, and Equities in Japan

This paper investigates return transmission, volatility spillovers, and dynamic correlations between the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) index, the Nikkei 225 index, and the yen/dollar exchange rate. As a result, we find many new findings and these all show our significant contributions as follows. First, there is return transmission from the Nikkei 225 to the TSE REIT index. Second, there is bidirectional return transmission between the Nikkei 225 and the yen/dollar exchange rate. Third, there are bidirectional volatility spillovers between the Nikkei 225 and the TSE REIT index. Fourth, there are volatility spillovers from the Nikkei 225 to the yen/dollar exchange rate. Fifth, dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) between TSE REIT returns and Nikkei 225 returns are not low. Moreover, DCCs between Nikkei 225 returns and yen/dollar exchange rate changes are not high. Furthermore, DCCs between TSE REIT returns and yen/dollar exchange rate changes are quite low. These our new findings shall be useful for not only deepening our understanding of financial markets but also our related future research.

Optimistic Mexico budget maintains fiscal tightness

Significance It contains the federal budget and revenue legislation, as well as key macroeconomic domestic and international assumptions and projections, several of which look highly optimistic. Impacts Banxico will probably increase interest rates further due to relatively high inflation levels. Tight fiscal and monetary conditions will probably arrest short-term growth. The peso-dollar exchange rate should remain broadly stable as the fiscal accounts present manageable deficits in 2021-22. The current account is expected to show a small surplus during 2021 as a whole, and a marginal deficit next year. Legislators may raise the expected oil price for 2022 to boost spending in some areas without increasing the fiscal deficit target.