scholarly journals Pressure Measurement on the Foreign Exchange Market and Currency Crises in Morocco

2021 ◽  
pp. 49-61
Author(s):  
ICHOU Mohammed Adil ◽  
RASSAM Driss ◽  
ABBADI Idriss ◽  
ELHIRI Abderrazak
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Pressure Index ◽  
Market Pressure

This article aims to assess the pressure upon the official currency of the Kingdom of Morocco - the Dirham - and to detect the periods of crisis on the foreign exchange market. Several methods can be used for this purpose especially the Exchange Market Pressure Index, which is considered as an excellent predictive indicator that takes into account both changes in nominal exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves. In term of results, the pressures on the Moroccan foreign exchange market stem mainly from a substantial decrease in foreign exchange reserves combined with a high deficit of the current account of the balance of payments deficit. In the last part of this article, a logistic model was used to forecast the EMPI for the end of the year 2020. The results of this modeling showed that the pressure on the Moroccan foreign exchange market remained generally under control during the year, although its signs could be felt particularly in the fourth quarter. These results were corroborated by the 2020 officially published figures. Keywords: Foreign exchange market, Exchange Market Pressure Index, Exchange rate, Foreign exchange reserves.

scholarly journals Determinan of Exchange Market Pressure in ASEAN Inflation Targeting Countries

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-32
Author(s):  
Lisa Gusmanita ◽  
Nury Effendi ◽  
Rudi Kurniawan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Panel Data Analysis ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Market Pressure

 Abstract: The global economic turmoil on domestic economy was seen in 1997/1998 crisis which led to Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia implementing Inflation Targeting (IT). Empirically, IT was able to reduce  foreign exchange market pressure but crisis occurred again in 2008 and large foreign exchange market pressure in 2018. This study uses Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) to examines foreign exchange market pressure in ASEAN IT countries. According to Panday (2015), EMP is percentage change in exchange rate, foreign exchange reserve, interest rate or combinations. This study aims to find determinant of EMP which can be used by monetary authority controlling pressure on foreign exchange market. Panel data analysis during 2010.Q1-2018.Q4 shows that domestic credit has significant negatively effect to EMP which indicates that domestic credit growth is in line with  increasing  net capital flows. Current account and US inflation have significant negatively effect while real GDP does not have significant.Keywords: Exchange Market Pressure, EMP, Exchange Rate, Monetary PolicyDeterminan Exchange Market Pressure Negara Inflation Targeting di ASEANAbstrak: Gejolak perekonomian global terhadap perekonomian domestik terlihat pada krisis 1997/1998 yang menyebabkan Thailand, Filipina dan Indonesia menerapkan Inflation Targeting (IT). Secara empiris, IT mampu menurunkan tekanan pasar valas akan tetapi krisis kembali terjadi di 2008 dan tekanan pasar valas yang besar di 2018. Penelitian ini menggunakan Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) untuk melihat seberapa besar tekanan terhadap pasar valas negara IT di ASEAN. Menurut Panday (2015), EMP adalah persentase perubahan nilai tukar, perubahan cadangan devisa, perubahan suku bunga dan atau kombinasinya. Penelitian ini bertujuan ingin mengetahui faktor-faktor apa saja yang memengaruhi EMP sehingga dapat dijadikan masukan bagi otoritas moneter dalam mengendalikan tekanan terhadap pasar valas. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis regresi data panel periode 2010.Q1-2018.Q4. Penelitian menunjukkan kredit domestik signifikan negatif memengaruhi EMP. Hal ini tidak sesuai teori yang mengindikasikan bahwa pertumbuhan kredit domestik sejalan dengan peningkatan net capital flows. Transaksi neraca berjalan dan inflasi AS berpengaruh signifikan negatif sedangkan PDB riil tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap EMP.Kata kunci: Exchange Market Pressure, EMP, Nilai Tukar, Kebijakan Moneter

scholarly journals Foreign exchange market pressure index and monetary policy in Iraq

2018 ◽  
Vol 63 (219) ◽  
pp. 61-82
Author(s):  
Ammar Khalaf
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Policy Intervention ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Pressure Index ◽  
Market Pressure

This paper?s aims are to adequately measure a foreign exchange market pressure index that can be used to discover pressures in the Iraqi foreign exchange market early on, and to examine the effect of monetary policy intervention in the Iraqi foreign exchange market. The modelling approach used is Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL), with monthly time series data spanning 2013-2017. The index used in this paper was able to identify different periods of pressure in the Iraqi foreign exchange market. In addition, the econometric analysis found that the traditional proxies for monetary policy intervention in the foreign exchange market, such as domestic credit and money multiplier, were ineffective in the case of Iraq. The results show that the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) relied extensively on foreign reserves to mitigate pressures in the foreign exchange market. Due to the nature of the Iraqi economy and where the main source of foreign currency is oil exports, the CBI adopted a fixed exchange rate regime to control inflationary expectations and stabilize the foreign exchange market.

scholarly journals EXCHANGE MARKET PRESSURE PENDETEKSI KRISIS KEUANGAN DI INDONESIA

2015 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Khairul Azhar ◽  
Hasdi Aimon ◽  
Selli Nelonda
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Market Pressure

This study aimed to analyze: (1) Probability of Real Effective Exchange Rate, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Export, Import, loan to deposit ratio, Return to the assets of the financial crisis in Indonesia. Using data from the years 1995 to 2014 times series. This research is using Early warning system using econometric approach, through the Exchange Market Pressure (EMP). These results indicate: (1) Real Exchange Rate Efecctive have significant opportunities to the financial crisis. (2) The foreign exchange reserves have significant opportunities to the financial crisis. (3) Exports have significant opportunities to the financial crisis. (4) imports did not have significant opportunities to financial krissi. (5) The loan to deposit ratio has a significant opportunity to the financial crisis. (6) Return to Asset does not have significant opportunities to the financial crisis. (7) Real Efecctive Exchange Rate, foreign exchange reserves, exports, imports, loan to deposit ratio and Return to Asset jointly chance against the financial crisis in Indonesia.Keyword  : Exchange Market Pressure, Early Waring System crises

scholarly journals Analisis EMP Indonesia dan Empat Negara ASEAN pada Masa Krisis

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-122
Author(s):  
Clara Septyana Rahma Sulaeman ◽  
Vera Lisna
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Pressure ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Market Pressure ◽  
Method Show

Analysis of Indonesian EMP and Four ASEAN Countries During CrisisContagion effect or domino eect which causes spreading economic crisis from one country to another also occurred in Indonesia in 1997 and 2008. The effect was identified by Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) index which measures economic pressure faced by a country on the exchange market through foreign exchange rate changes and foreign exchange reserves. The results of EMP analysis in Indonesia and four ASEAN countries using VAR method show that EMP contribution of four ASEAN countries in 2008 was larger than that of 1997. Moreover, the 1997 crisis in Indonesia spread from Thailand, while the 2008 crisis spread from Singapore.Keywords: Exchange Market Pressure; Vector Autoregression; ASEAN Countries AbstrakContagion Effect atau efek domino yang merupakan salah satu penyebab menjalarnya krisis ekonomi dari suatu negara ke negara lain juga terjadi di Indonesia tahun 1997 dan 2008. Efek tersebut diidentifikasi dari indeks Exchange Market Pressure (EMP) yaitu ukuran tekanan ekonomi yang dihadapi suatu negara pada pasar valuta asing melalui perubahan nilai tukar dan cadangan devisa. Hasil analisis EMP Indonesia dan empat negara ASEAN menggunakan metode VAR menunjukkan kontribusi EMP empat negara ASEAN dalam menjelaskan EMP Indonesia tahun 2008 lebih besar dibandingkan tahun 1997. Selain itu, krisis tahun 1997 di Indonesia menjalar dari Thailand, sedangkan krisis tahun 2008 menjalar dari Singapura.

scholarly journals Exchange Market Pressure and Monetary Policy: The Turkish Case

Ekonomika ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 110-130
Author(s):  
Ilyas Siklar ◽  
Aysegul Akca
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Credit Expansion ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Exchange Market Pressure ◽  
Pressure Index ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Market Pressure

The purpose of this study is to determine the relationship between monetary policy and the exchange market pressure index in Turkey for the 2002–2018 period with monthly data. To obtain the foreign exchange market pressure index, this study uses the model developed by L. Girton and D.E. Roper and is based fundamentally on the monetary approach to exchange rate determination and the balance of payments. The calculated exchange market pressure index is in accordance with the developments lived in financial markets and changes in monetary policy during the period under investigation. As for the relation between exchange market pressure index and monetary policy, a VAR model was set up and a Granger type causality analysis was carried out. According to Granger causality test results, there is a unidirectional causality running from domestic credit expansion to exchange market pressure and from domestic credit expansion to interest rate differential while there is a bidirectional causality between exchange market pressure and interest rate differential. Since increasing exchange market pressure means a depreciation of the Turkish Lira, the estimated VAR model’s results support the view that the Central Bank will increase the interest rate to temper the exchange market pressure.

scholarly journals REGULATORS AND LEVERS OF THE ANTI-CRISIS POLICY OF STATE IN THE FIELD OF MONETARY AND ECONOMIC RELATIONS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tetiana Kosova ◽  
Olga Tereshchenko
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Currency Crises ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Currency Crisis ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
National Currency ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
The Third ◽  
Positive Balance

In the article the definition of the currency crisis as a sharp violation of exchange parity, devaluation of the national currency of a country, the single currency of the economic union, the world reserve currency, etc. for a short period after a period of relatively long exchange rate stability. It is established that the source of the currency crisis can be the banking system, the budget sphere, domestic and foreign public debt, balance of payments, and the channels of influence of factors can be isolated or combined (double, triple, etc.). The main goal of anti-crisis policy in the field of monetary and financial relations is early warning of the crisis. It is shown that the choice of regulators and levers should depend on the model of crisis phenomena in the foreign exchange market, the diversity of which is reduced to the dominance of certain factors: economic, non-economic (military-political, behavioral, psychological), external influence. The retrospectives of four currency crises that have taken place since Ukraine's independence have been assessed, their models have been diagnosed: 1992-1993 – the first, 1998-1999 – mixed (synthesis of the first and third models), 2008-2009 – the third, 2014-2015 – the second. It is statistically shown that the first crisis was the most acute, the third crisis was the mildest. Regulators and levers of anti-crisis policy are defined as a system of interconnected mechanisms of state and market regulation aimed at ensuring the stability of the national currency, its external and internal convertibility, positive balance of payments, growth of official foreign exchange reserves, stimulating the country's export potential. It is proved that the anti-crisis policy of the state in the field of monetary and financial relations should strengthen and complement the operation of market mechanisms with priority given to economic regulators and levers over administrative ones. The main objects of the anti-crisis mechanism in the foreign exchange market, which are implemented in the real and financial sectors of the national economy and are designed to eliminate currency and macroeconomic imbalances, the balance of payments, harmonize monetary and exchange rate policies of the NBU.

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