Pressure Measurement on the Foreign Exchange Market and Currency Crises in Morocco

This article aims to assess the pressure upon the official currency of the Kingdom of Morocco - the Dirham - and to detect the periods of crisis on the foreign exchange market. Several methods can be used for this purpose especially the Exchange Market Pressure Index, which is considered as an excellent predictive indicator that takes into account both changes in nominal exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves. In term of results, the pressures on the Moroccan foreign exchange market stem mainly from a substantial decrease in foreign exchange reserves combined with a high deficit of the current account of the balance of payments deficit. In the last part of this article, a logistic model was used to forecast the EMPI for the end of the year 2020. The results of this modeling showed that the pressure on the Moroccan foreign exchange market remained generally under control during the year, although its signs could be felt particularly in the fourth quarter. These results were corroborated by the 2020 officially published figures. Keywords: Foreign exchange market, Exchange Market Pressure Index, Exchange rate, Foreign exchange reserves.