The Impact of the 2008 World Financial Crisis on Homelessness in Developed Countries : The Case Study of New York City = أثر الأزمة المالية العالمية عام 2008 على ظاهرة التشرد في الدول المتحضرة : دراسة حال مدينة نيويورك

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-280
Author(s):  
Hussaen A. H. Kahachi

This paper uses measles incidence in developed countries as the basis of a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. It uses a combination of epidemiological modelling and nonlinear forecasting to explore a range of issues relating to the predictability of measles before and after the advent of mass vaccination. A comparison of the pre-vaccination self-predictability of measles in England and Wales indicates relatively high predictability of these predominantly biennial epidemic series, compared to New York City, which shows mixtures of one-, twoand three-year epidemics. This analysis also indicates the importance of choosing correct embeddings to avoid bias in prediction. Forecasting for English cities indicates significant spatial heterogeneity in predictability before vaccination and an overall drop in predictability during the vaccination era. The interpretation of predictions of observed measles series by epidemiological models is explored and areas for refinement of current models discussed.


2013 ◽  
Vol 103 (4) ◽  
pp. 733-739 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lauren E. Johns ◽  
Ann M. Madsen ◽  
Gil Maduro ◽  
Regina Zimmerman ◽  
Kevin Konty ◽  
...  

2017 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 275-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min Gyung Kim ◽  
Hyunjoo Yang ◽  
Anna S. Mattila

New York City launched a restaurant sanitation letter grade system in 2010. We evaluate the impact of customer loyalty on restaurant revisit intentions after exposure to a sanitation grade alone, and after exposure to a sanitation grade plus narrative information about sanitation violations (e.g., presence of rats). We use a 2 (loyalty: high or low) × 4 (sanitation grade: A, B, C, or pending) between-subjects full factorial design to test the hypotheses using data from 547 participants recruited from Amazon MTurk who reside in the New York City area. Our study yields three findings. First, loyal customers exhibit higher intentions to revisit restaurants than non-loyal customers, regardless of sanitation letter grades. Second, the difference in revisit intentions between loyal and non-loyal customers is higher when sanitation grades are poorer. Finally, loyal customers are less sensitive to narrative information about sanitation violations.


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