scholarly journals CALCULATION OF CLIMATE LOADS DESIGN VALUES ACCORDING TO THE PROBABILITY MODEL OF ANNUAL MAXIMUM SERIES

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 61-71
Author(s):  
Mykola Pashynskyi ◽  
◽  
Victor Pashynskyi ◽  
Evgeniy Klymenko ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Model ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Value Distribution ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Type I ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value ◽  
Characteristic Values ◽  
Distribution Type

The aim of this work is to improve a method for determining the characteristic values of climatic loads according to a probabilistic model of the annual maxima sequence, by choosing a rational type of generalized extreme value distribution law. An analysis is provided regarding the suitability of using four types of distributions for describing a data collection of maximum values of climatic loads. Using example data from the meteorological stations of Ukraine, it is found that for coefficients of variation smaller than 0.85–1.0, it is advisable to use the double exponential Gumbel distribution (generalized extreme value distribution type-I), and at higher values of the coefficient of variation, it is advisable to use the Weibull distribution (generalized extreme value distribution type-III). Recommendations are provided for considering the accuracy in the estimations of the characteristic values of loads according to the probabilistic model for the annual maximum value series.

scholarly journals Optimization of Parameters in the Generalized Extreme-Value Distribution Type 1 for Three Populations Using Harmonic Search

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Pablo Molina-Aguilar ◽  
Alfonso Gutierrez-Lopez ◽  
Jose Angel Raynal-Villaseñor ◽  
Luis Gabriel Garcia-Valenzuela
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Values ◽  
Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Extreme Value ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Value Distribution ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution ◽  
Type I ◽  
Generalized Extreme Value ◽  
Heuristic Technique ◽  
Distribution Type

Due to its geographical position, Mexico is exposed annually to cold fronts and tropical cyclones, registering extremely high values that are atypical in the series of maximum annual flows. Univariate mixed probability distribution functions have been developed based on the theory of extreme values, which require techniques to determine their parameters. Therefore, this paper explores a function that considers three populations to analyze maximum annual flows. According to the structure of the Generalized Extreme-Value Distribution (GEV), the simultaneous definition of nine parameters is required: three of location, three of scale, and three of probability of occurrence. Thus, the use of a meta-heuristic technique was proposed (harmonic search). The precision of the adjustment was increased through the optimization of the parameters, and with it came a reduction in the uncertainty of the forecast, particularly for cyclonic events. It is concluded that the use of an extreme value distribution (Type I) structured with three populations and accompanied by the technique of harmonic search improves the performance in respect to classic techniques for the determination of its parameters.

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