Directions and Extent of Flows Changes in Warta River Basin (Poland) in the Context of the Efficiency of Run-of-River Hydropower Plants and the Perspectives for Their Future Development

This paper presents changes in the flow of 14 rivers located in the Warta River basin, recorded from 1951 to 2020. The Warta is the third-longest river in Poland. Unfortunately, the Warta River catchment area is one of the most water-scarce regions. It hosts about 150 hydropower plants with a capacity of up to 5 kW. The catchment areas of the 14 smaller rivers selected for the study differ in location, size, land cover structure and geological structure. The paper is the first study of this type with respect to both the number of analyzed catchments, the length of the sampling series and the number of analyzed flow characteristics in this part of Europe. The analysis of changes in the river flows was performed with reference to low minimum, mean and maximum monthly, seasonal and annual flows. Particular attention was paid to 1, 3, 7, 30 and 90-day low flows and durations of the flows between Q50 and Q90%. In addition, the duration of flows between Q50 and Q90% were analysed. Analysis of the direction and extent of particular flow types was performed by multitemporal analysis using the Mann–Kendall (MK) and Sen (S) tests. The analysis of multiannual flow sequences from the years 1951–2020 showed that the changes varied over the time periods and catchments. The most significant changes occurred in the low flows, while the least significant changes occurred in the high flows. From the point of view of the operation of the hydropower sector, these changes may be unfavourable and result in a reduction in the efficiency of run-of-river hydropower plants. It was established that local factors play a dominant role in the shaping of river flows in both positive and negative terms, for the efficiency of the hydropower plants.

Residential Space Transformation in Support of Waterfront City (Case Study: Arut River, Pangkalan Bun)

The Arut River flows through the city of Pangkalan Bun in Central Kalimantan and is the forerunner of the formation of this city. The structure of the residential space formed by houses on stilts and wooden roads further strengthens the existence of riverside settlements. The settlements on the banks of the Arut River currently function not only as residences but also tourist attractions with the concept of a waterfront city. Waterfront city in Pangkalan Bun City began to be developed in 2018 in Mendawai Village. Tourism activities on the banks of the Arut River have affected the use of residential space, so this study aims to find changes in residential space as a result of the development of tourism activities. The research methodology used is rationalistic qualitative with an empirical and spatial approach. The results showed that public residential spaces such as roads and rivers underwent more changes, on certain days and hours the street space turned into parking, selling areas, and sitting/“hanging out” areas. Private spaces such as houses also turn into stalls/shops and inns.

MODELING AND PREDICTING THE MONO RIVER OVERFLOW UPSTREAM OF THE NANGBETO DAM IN WEST AFRICA USING MULTIPLICATIVE DETERMINIST MODEL

The variation and non-control of the overflow of the Mono River adversely affects the performance of the Nangbetohydropower plant to the point thatitcan no longermeet the increasinglyincreaseddemand for electricity. This studypresents the development of an operational model for forecastingdaily river flows for the plants water retention. The overflow of the Mono River at the upstreamhydroelectric dam from 1991 to 2019 wasanalyzed and modeled by the deterministicprocesswith R software in order to makepredictions. First, the flow serieswasanalyzed by the ARIMA model (18, 1, 2) then by a multiplicative model afterremoving the seasonal trends fromtheseseries by the movingaveragemethod. The calculatederror of the results of said model revealsthat the deterministic model integrates the input generationprocesseswith an error of the order of . Finally, an annual flow forecasting program has been developed as a planning tool for the operation of the dam, in order to meet production needs and to plan water releases.

How might climate change affect river flows across West Africa?

West Africa and its semi-arid Sahelian region are one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to climate change with a history of extreme climate variability. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how projected climate change will affect precipitation at local and regional scales and the consequent impact on river flows and water resources across West Africa. Here, we aim to address this uncertainty by configuring a regional-scale hydrological model to West Africa. The model (hydrological modelling framework for West Africa—HMF-WA) simulates spatially consistent river flows on a 0.1° × 0.1° grid (approximately 10 km × 10 km) continuously across the whole domain and includes estimates of anthropogenic water use, wetland inundation, and local hydrological features such as endorheic regions. Regional-scale hydrological simulations driven by observed weather data are assessed against observed flows before undertaking an analysis of the impact of projected future climate scenarios from the CMIP5 on river flows up to the end of the twenty-first century. The results indicate that projected future changes in river flows are highly spatially variable across West Africa, particularly across the Sahelian region where the predicted changes are more pronounced. The study shows that median peak flows are projected to decrease by 23% in the west (e.g. Senegal) and increase by 80% in the eastern region (e.g. Chad) by the 2050s. The projected reductions in river flows in western Sahel lead to future droughts and water shortages more likely, while in the eastern Sahel, projected increases lead to future frequent floods.

Hydrological Modeling of the Astore River Basin, Pakistan, by Integrating Snow and Glacier Melt Processes and Climate Scenarios

The upper Indus River basin has large masses of glaciers that supply meltwater in the summer. Water resources from the upper Indus River basin are crucial for human activities and ecosystems in Pakistan, but they are vulnerable to climate change. This study focuses on the impacts of climate change, particularly the effects of receding glaciers on the water resources in a catchment of the upper Indus river basin. This study predicts river flow using a hydrologic model coupled with temperature-index snow and glacier melt models forced by observed climate data. The basin is divided into seven elevation zones so that the melt components and rainfall-runoff were calculated at each elevation zone. Hydrologic modeling revealed that glaciers contributed one-third of the total flow while snowmelt melt contributed about 40%; rainfall contributed to the remaining flow. Some climate scenarios based on CMIP5 and CORDEX were employed to quantify the impacts of climate change on annual river flows. The glacier retreat in the mid and late centuries is also considered based on climate change scenarios. Future river flows, simulated by the hydrologic model, project significant changes in their quantity and timing. In the mid-century, river flows will increase because of higher precipitation and glacier melt. Simulations projected that until 2050, the overall river flows will increase by 11%, and no change in the shape of the hydrograph is expected. However, this increasing trend in river flows will reverse in the late century because glaciers will not have enough mass to sustain the glacier melt flow. The change will result in a 4.5% decrease in flow, and the timing of the monthly peak flow will shift from June to May. This earlier shift in the streamflow will make water management more difficult in the future, requiring inclusive approaches in water resource management.

Modelling climate change impact on water resources of the Upper Indus Basin

Climate change has implications for water resources by increasing temperature, shifting precipitation patterns and altering the timing of snowfall and glacier melt, leading to shifts in the seasonality of river flows. Here, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool was run using downscaled precipitation and temperature projections from five global climate models (GCMs) and their multi-model mean to estimate the potential impact of climate change on water balance components in sub-basins of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) under two emission (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and future (2020–2050 and 2070–2100) scenarios. Warming of above 6 °C relative to baseline (1974–2004) is projected for the UIB by the end of the century (2070–2100), but the spread of annual precipitation projections among GCMs is large (+16 to −28%), and even larger for seasonal precipitation (+91 to −48%). Compared to the baseline, an increase in summer precipitation (RCP8.5: +36.7%) and a decrease in winter precipitation were projected (RCP8.5: −16.9%), with an increase in average annual water yield from the nival–glacial regime and river flow peaking 1 month earlier. We conclude that predicted warming during winter and spring could substantially affect the seasonal river flows, with important implications for water supplies.

Settlement Schemes and their Implication on Eastern Mau Water Catchment, Kenya

Settlement schemes are aimed at settling landless people and those displaced by disasters to support socio-economic and environmental development of a country. Eastern Mau Forest Reserve is an important water catchment that has settlement schemes established, which has led to encroachments and degradation of the catchment. This paper, therefore, assesses the implications of human settlements on Eastern Mau water catchment by examining the trends in land use/cover change and river flows for four decades. Primary data was collected from key informant interviews based on purposive sampling whereas secondary data was derived from Landsat satellite images over a 10-year period and analysed using Maximum Likelihood Function from ArcGIS. Data on river flows from River Njoro was obtained from Water Resources Authority Office in Nakuru. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Kenya Meteorological Station in Nakuru. Time series analysis is used to understand the trend in river flows over time while Pearson correlation is used to determine relationship between farmlands and river flows. The results indicate a sharp decline in forest cover by 42.7% and an increase in farmlands by 41%. Dense vegetation and farmlands have an inverse relationship as an increase in farmlands lead to a decrease in forest cover. People have settled beyond the established settlement schemes boundaries leading to encroachment and drying up of some rivers. There is also an increase in rainfall and river flows over the years, with monthly river flows increasing in peak flows and declining during low seasons. There is a positive correlation between farmlands and river flows between 1989 and 2020. There is need for regeneration of encroached areas and defining boundary of Eastern Mau to allow initiatives and interventions that help with sustainable management of the catchment area.