scholarly journals Bayesian Inference for Nonlinear and Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Model with Leverage Effect

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 173-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomohiro Ando
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Non Gaussian

A non-Gaussian stochastic volatility model

1998 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 33-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuichi Nagahara ◽  
Genshiro Kitagawa
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Non Gaussian

scholarly journals Cross-Commodity Spot Price Modeling with Stochastic Volatility and Leverage For Energy Markets

2013 ◽  
Vol 45 (02) ◽  
pp. 545-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. E. Benth ◽  
L. Vos
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Simulation Method ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Order Structure ◽  
Spot Prices ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Multivariate Stochastic Volatility

Spot prices in energy markets exhibit special features, such as price spikes, mean reversion, stochastic volatility, inverse leverage effect, and dependencies between the commodities. In this paper a multivariate stochastic volatility model is introduced which captures these features. The second-order structure and stationarity of the model are analyzed in detail. A simulation method for Monte Carlo generation of price paths is introduced and a numerical example is presented.

scholarly journals BAYESIAN INFERENCE OF STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL BY HYBRID MONTE CARLO

2009 ◽  
Vol 18 (08) ◽  
pp. 1381-1396 ◽  
Author(s):  
TETSUYA TAKAISHI
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Metropolis Algorithm ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Hybrid Monte Carlo ◽  
Volatility Model

The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility variables of the SV model. First we compute parameters of the SV model by using the artificial financial data and compare the results from the HMC algorithm with those from the Metropolis algorithm. We find that the HMC algorithm decorrelates the volatility variables faster than the Metropolis algorithm. Second we make an empirical study for the time series of the Nikkei 225 stock index by the HMC algorithm. We find the similar correlation behavior for the sampled data to the results from the artificial financial data and obtain a ϕ value close to one (ϕ ≈ 0.977), which means that the time series has the strong persistency of the volatility shock.

scholarly journals Pricing of Forwards and Options in a Multivariate Non-Gaussian Stochastic Volatility Model for Energy Markets

2013 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 572-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. E. Benth ◽  
L. Vos
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Energy Markets ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Spot Price ◽  
Price Model ◽  
Forward Price ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Characteristic Features ◽  
Hump Shape ◽  
Non Gaussian

In Benth and Vos (2013) we introduced a multivariate spot price model with stochastic volatility for energy markets which captures characteristic features, such as price spikes, mean reversion, stochastic volatility, and inverse leverage effect as well as dependencies between commodities. In this paper we derive the forward price dynamics based on our multivariate spot price model, providing a very flexible structure for the forward curves, including contango, backwardation, and hump shape. Moreover, a Fourier transform-based method to price options on the forward is described.

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