Abstract
This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of the International Index Futures Markets using daily settlement prices for the period 4 January 2010 to 31 December 2015. Standard OLS regressions, Error Correction Model (ECM), as well as Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model are employed to estimate corresponding hedge ratios that can be employed in risk management. The analyzed sample consists of daily closing market rates of the stock market indexes of the USA and the European futures contracts. The findings indicate that the time varying hedge ratios, if estimated through the ARDL model, are more efficient than the fixed hedge ratios in terms of minimizing the risk. Additionally, there is evidence that the comparative advantage of advanced econometric approaches compared to conventional models is enhanced further for capital markets within peripheral EU countries
Forecasting the daily dynamic hedge ratios in emerging European stock futures markets: evidence from GARCH models