The emotional cost-of-carry: Chinese investor sentiment and equity index futures basis

PurposeWhile the classic futures pricing tool works well for capital markets that are less affected by sentiment, it needs further modification in China's case as retail investors constitute a large portion of the Chinese stock market participants. Their expectations of the rate of return are prone to emotional swings. This paper, therefore, explores the role of investor sentiment in explaining futures basis changes via the channel of implied discount rates.Design/methodology/approachUsing Chinese equity market data from 2010 to 2019, the authors augment the cost-of-carry model for pricing stock index futures by incorporating the investor sentiment factor. This design allows us to estimate the basis in a better way that reflects the relationship between the underlying index price and its futures price.FindingsThe authors find strong evidence that the measure of Chinese investor sentiment drives the abnormal fluctuations in the basis of China's stock index futures. Moreover, this driving force turns out to be much less prominent for large-cap stocks, liquid contracting frequencies, regulatory loosening periods and mature markets, further verifying the sentiment argument for basis mispricing.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by relying on investor sentiment measures to explain the persistent discount anomaly of index futures basis in China. This finding is of great importance for Chinese investors with the intention to implement arbitrage, hedging and speculation strategies.

Expiration-Day Effects of Index Futures in a Frontier Market: The Case of Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange

This study employs OLS, GARCH and EGARCH regression models to test the expiration-day effects of index stock futures on market returns, volatility and trading volume for the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE). Data used in this study is from a daily return series of the VN30-Index for the period from 10August 2017 through 30 June 2020. The results derived from GARCH(1,1) and EGARCH(1,1) models consistently confirm that Index futures expiration-day effects on market returns exists in the HOSE. Specifically, the average market return for expiration days is significantly lower than other trading days, by 0.13% at the 5% level of significance. However, the results obtained from the regression models indicate that the expiration-day has no impact on market volatility and trading volume.

The Liquidity Spillover Effects Between the Stock Index Futures and Spot Under the Fractal Market Hypothesis

In recent years, the extreme risk events occurred frequently in the financial market have not only brought huge losses to investors and inflicted heavy losses on the market, but also posed a severe challenge for the traditional effective market hypothesis. These extreme risk events are often accompanied by sudden plummeting of liquidity. Different from the efficient market hypothesis(EMT), firstly, this paper studies the nonlinear fluctuation characteristics and causes of contracts with different maturity periods in China stock index futures market under the framework of fractal market theory and using the multifractal detrended fluctuation model Secondly, under the framework of the fractal market theory, the existence of the liquidity spillover effect between the stock index futures and spot is tested, the direction, intensity, and contribution of spillover between stock index futures and spot are analyzed. Finally, there is a robustness test. The study finds that both stock index futures and stock index spot in China have obvious nonlinear fractal fluctuation characteristics, and stock index futures have higher degree of multifractal, the characteristics are related to correlated multifractal and distributed multifractal; the longer the maturity period of the stock index futures contract, the lower the multifractal degree; there are significant asymmetric liquidity spillover effects between the stock index futures and spot; the multifractal degree has an important influence on the intensity and contribution of the liquidity spillover effect, and the multifractal degree is inversely proportional to the intensity of liquidity spillover and the contribution of spot to futures fluctuations.

INDEX FUTURES INTRODUCTION AND STOCK MARKET VOLATILITY: EMPIRICAL STUDY IN VIETNAM

This paper aims at answering the question whether the VN30 index futures introduction has an impact on stock market volatility in Vietnam. Apply GARCH model of volatility with additive dummy variable from 28/7/2000 to 10/9/2020, the result shows that when the first listed index futures contract appears, it makes the volatility of VNIndex increases. The result is still robust after excluding the turmoil period of Vietnam stock market. This paper implies that policy maker should be more careful in promoting derivatives market in Vietnam.

The Informational Response of Different Investor Types on Futures Return Fluctuations: Evidence from Taiwan’s Index Futures Market

This article examines the price impact of different types of investors' trading activities in the Taiwan index futures market on the market, and explores the information roles of different types of investors. We find the trading volumes of different investors in the index futures market affect futures returns through information. The impact on index futures returns in the current period is small, showing the ability of foreign institutional investors to quickly respond to negative news and obtain information advantages. Further, from the MSE and QLIKE loss functions, individual investors use EGARCH(1,1), domestic institutional investors TGARCH(1,1), and foreign institutional investors GARCH(1,1). Further, the imbalance of buy and sell orders is suitable for the fluctuation of futures returns using EGARCH(1,1).