scholarly journals Ambiguity and Awareness: A Coherent Multiple Priors Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Grant ◽  
Ani Guerdjikova ◽  
John Quiggin

AbstractAmbiguity in the ordinary language sense means that available information is open to multiple interpretations. We model this by assuming that individuals are unaware of some possibilities relevant to the outcome of their decisions and that multiple probabilities may arise over an individual’s subjective state space depending on which of these possibilities are realized. We formalize a notion of coherent multiple priors and derive a representation result that with full awareness corresponds to the usual unique (Bayesian) prior but with less than full awareness generates multiple priors. When information is received with no change in awareness, each element of the set of priors is updated in the standard Bayesian fashion (that is, full Bayesian updating). An increase in awareness, however, leads to an expansion of the individual’s subjective state and (in general) a contraction in the set of priors under consideration.

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youichiro Higashi ◽  
Kazuya Hyogo

Econometrica ◽  
2001 ◽  
Vol 69 (4) ◽  
pp. 891-934 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eddie Dekel ◽  
Barton L. Lipman ◽  
Aldo Rustichini

Econometrica ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 75 (2) ◽  
pp. 591-600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eddie Dekel ◽  
Barton L Lipman ◽  
Aldo Rustichini ◽  
Todd Sarver

Synthese ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 179 (S1) ◽  
pp. 13-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver J. Board ◽  
Kim-Sau Chung ◽  
Burkhard C. Schipper

2009 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 285-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Itzhak Gilboa ◽  
Andrew Postlewaite ◽  
David Schmeidler

This note argues that, under some circumstances, it is more rational not to behave in accordance with a Bayesian prior than to do so. The starting point is that in the absence of information, choosing a prior is arbitrary. If the prior is to have meaningful implications, it is more rational to admit that one does not have sufficient information to generate a prior than to pretend that one does. This suggests a view of rationality that requires a compromise between internal coherence and justification, similarly to compromises that appear in moral dilemmas. Finally, it is argued that Savage's axioms are more compelling when applied to a naturally given state space than to an analytically constructed one; in the latter case, it may be more rational to violate the axioms than to be Bayesian.


Author(s):  
Dale E. McClendon ◽  
Paul N. Morgan ◽  
Bernard L. Soloff

It has been observed that minute amounts of venom from the brown recluse spider, Loxosceles reclusa, are capable of producing cytotoxic changes in cultures of certain mammalian cells (Morgan and Felton, 1965). Since there is little available information concerning the effect of venoms on susceptible cells, we have attempted to characterize, at the electron microscope level, the cytotoxic changes produced by the venom of this spider.Cultures of human epithelial carcinoma cells, strain HeLa, were initiated on sterile, carbon coated coverslips contained in Leighton tubes. Each culture was seeded with approximately 1x105 cells contained in 1.5 ml of a modified Eagle's minimum essential growth medium prepared in Hank's balanced salt solution. Cultures were incubated at 36° C. for three days prior to the addition of venom. The venom was collected from female brown recluse spiders and diluted in sterile saline. Protein determinations on the venom-were made according to the spectrophotometric method of Waddell (1956). Approximately 10 μg venom protein per ml of fresh medium was added to each culture after discarding the old growth medium. Control cultures were treated similarly, except that no venom was added. All cultures were reincubated at 36° C.


Author(s):  
Gregory L. Finch ◽  
Richard G. Cuddihy

The elemental composition of individual particles is commonly measured by using energydispersive spectroscopic microanalysis (EDS) of samples excited with electron beam irradiation. Similarly, several investigators have characterized particles by using external monochromatic X-irradiation rather than electrons. However, there is little available information describing measurements of particulate characteristic X rays produced not from external sources of radiation, but rather from internal radiation contained within the particle itself. Here, we describe the low-energy (< 20 KeV) characteristic X-ray spectra produced by internal radiation self-excitation of two general types of particulate samples; individual radioactive particles produced during the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and radioactive fused aluminosilicate particles (FAP). In addition, we compare these spectra with those generated by conventional EDS.Approximately thirty radioactive particle samples from the Chernobyl accident were on a sample of wood that was near the reactor when the accident occurred. Individual particles still on the wood were microdissected from the bulk matrix after bulk autoradiography.


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