scholarly journals Are tobacco control policies effective? Interrupted time series analysis of routine tobacco surveillance ‎data: opportunities and challenges ‎

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatiana Andreeva
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Control Policies ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Control Policies

scholarly journals Time series analysis of the impact of tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence among Australian adults, 2001–2011

2014 ◽  
Vol 92 (6) ◽  
pp. 413-422 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melanie A Wakefield ◽  
Kerri Coomber ◽  
Sarah J Durkin ◽  
Michelle Scollo ◽  
Megan Bayly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Smoking Prevalence ◽  
Control Policies ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Control Policies ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control on global cigarette consumption: quasi-experimental evaluations using interrupted time series analysis and in-sample forecast event modelling

BMJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. l2287 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven J Hoffman ◽  
Mathieu J P Poirier ◽  
Susan Rogers Van Katwyk ◽  
Prativa Baral ◽  
Lathika Sritharan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Tobacco Control ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Cigarette Consumption ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Annual Consumption ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
National Estimates

Abstract Objective To evaluate the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) on global cigarette consumption. Design Two quasi-experimental impact evaluations, using interrupted time series analysis (ITS) and in-sample forecast event modelling. Setting and population 71 countries for which verified national estimates of cigarette consumption from 1970 to 2015 were available, representing over 95% of the world’s cigarette consumption and 85% of the world’s population. Main outcome measures The FCTC is an international treaty adopted in 2003 that aims to reduce harmful tobacco consumption and is legally binding on the 181 countries that have ratified it. Main outcomes were annual national estimates of cigarette consumption per adult from 71 countries since 1970, allowing global, regional, and country comparisons of consumption levels and trends before and after 2003, with counterfactual control groups modelled using pre-intervention linear time trends (for ITS) and in-sample forecasts (for event modelling). Results No significant change was found in the rate at which global cigarette consumption had been decreasing after the FCTC’s adoption in 2003, using either ITS or event modelling. Results were robust after realigning data to the year FCTC negotiations commenced (1999), or to the year when the FCTC first became legally binding in each country. By contrast to global consumption, high income and European countries showed a decrease in annual consumption by over 1000 cigarettes per adult after 2003, whereas low and middle income and Asian countries showed an increased annual consumption by over 500 cigarettes per adult when compared with a counterfactual event model. Conclusions This study finds no evidence to indicate that global progress in reducing cigarette consumption has been accelerated by the FCTC treaty mechanism. This null finding, combined with regional differences, should caution against complacency in the global tobacco control community, motivate greater implementation of proven tobacco control policies, encourage assertive responses to tobacco industry activities, and inform the design of more effective health treaties.

scholarly journals Does admission prevalence change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? An interrupted time series analysis of the impact of reconfiguration in five centres

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanne Martin ◽  
Edwin Amalraj Raja ◽  
Steve Turner
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admission ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Emergency Admissions ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Inpatient Services ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Admission Prevalence

Abstract Background Service reconfiguration of inpatient services in a hospital includes complete and partial closure of all emergency inpatient facilities. The “natural experiment” of service reconfiguration may give insight into drivers for emergency admissions to hospital. This study addressed the question does the prevalence of emergency admission to hospital for children change after reconfiguration of inpatient services? Methods There were five service reconfigurations in Scottish hospitals between 2004 and 2018 where emergency admissions to one “reconfigured” hospital were halted (permanently or temporarily) and directed to a second “adjacent” hospital. The number of emergency admissions (standardised to /1000 children in the regional population) per month to the “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals was obtained for five years prior to reconfiguration and up to five years afterwards. An interrupted time series analysis considered the association between reconfiguration and admissions across pairs comprised of “reconfigured” and “adjacent” hospitals, with adjustment for seasonality and an overall rising trend in admissions. Results Of the five episodes of reconfiguration, two were immediate closure, two involved closure only to overnight admissions and one with overnight closure for a period and then closure. In “reconfigured” hospitals there was an average fall of 117 admissions/month [95% CI 78, 156] in the year after reconfiguration compared to the year before, and in “adjacent” hospitals admissions rose by 82/month [32, 131]. Across paired reconfigured and adjacent hospitals, in the months post reconfiguration, the overall number of admissions to one hospital pair slowed, in another pair admissions accelerated, and admission prevalence was unchanged in three pairs. After reconfiguration in one hospital, there was a rise in admissions to a third hospital which was closer than the named “adjacent” hospital. Conclusions There are diverse outcomes for the number of emergency admissions post reconfiguration of inpatient facilities. Factors including resources placed in the community after local reconfiguration, distance to the “adjacent” hospital and local deprivation may be important drivers for admission pathways after reconfiguration. Policy makers considering reconfiguration might consider a number of factors which may be important determinants of admissions post reconfiguration.

Recession and risk of suicide in Denmark during the 2009 global financial crisis: an ecological register-based study

2021 ◽  
pp. 140349482110132
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Konieczna ◽  
Sarah Grube Jakobsen ◽  
Christina Petrea Larsen ◽  
Erik Christiansen
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Interrupted Time Series ◽  
Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽  
Series Analysis ◽  
Prevention Programmes ◽  
The Impact

Aim: The aim of this study is to analyse the potential impact from the financial crisis (onset in 2009) on suicide rates in Denmark. The hypothesis is that the global financial crisis raised unemployment which leads to raising the suicide rate in Denmark and that the impact is most prominent in men. Method: This study used an ecological study design, including register data from 2001 until 2016 on unemployment, suicide, gender and calendar time which was analysed using Poisson regression models and interrupted time series analysis. Results: The correlation between unemployment and suicide rates was positive in the period and statistically significant for all, but at a moderate level. A dichotomised version of time (calendar year) showed a significant reduction in the suicide rate for women (incidence rate ratio 0.87, P=0.002). Interrupted time series analysis showed a significant decreasing trend for the overall suicide rate and for men in the pre-recession period, which in both cases stagnated after the onset of recession in 2009. The difference between the genders’ suicide rate changed significantly at the onset of recession, as the rate for men increased and the rate for women decreased. Discussion: The Danish social welfare model might have prevented social disintegration and suicide among unemployed, and suicide prevention programmes might have prevented deaths among unemployed and mentally ill individuals. Conclusions: We found some indications for gender-specific differences from the impact of the financial crises on the suicide rate. We recommend that men should be specifically targeted for appropriate prevention programmes during periods of economic downturn.

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