Declining Numbers of Neurosurgical Emergencies at a German University Medical Center during the Coronavirus Lockdown

Background The coronavirus pandemic due to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is posing unprecedented challenges to health care systems around the globe. Consequently, various lockdown scenarios have been politically imposed to get control over the spread of this disease. We examined the impact of the lockdown situation on the number of neurosurgical emergency patients admitted to our tertiary care center with a catchment area of ∼2.2 million inhabitants in the south of Germany to ensure adequate neurosurgical emergency care during a pandemic lockdown. Methods All emergency admissions (with consecutive inpatient treatment) to the Department of Neurosurgery at the University Medical Center Regensburg, Germany, between March 1 and May 8 (69 days) of the years 2018, 2019, and 2020 were retrospectively identified and reviewed for this study. Demographic data, diagnoses, urgency of surgery, and duration of the journey to the emergency room were examined. Results Between March 1 and May 8, 2020, 59 emergency patients were neurosurgically treated at our department. Compared with 2018 and 2019, emergency admissions in 2020 had thus declined by 37.2 and 27.1%, respectively. Regarding the year 2020, we found a significant drop from 1.71 and 1.52 emergency patients per day in January and February 2020, respectively, to 0.86 during lockdown (p < 0.001). The decline especially concerned nontraumatic spinal cases and also patients with other neurosurgical diagnoses such as intracranial hemorrhage. Evaluation of the overall disease severity of admitted patients by means of the urgency of surgery showed no difference between the baseline years and the lockdown period. Conclusion Our findings are in line with other observational studies of neurosurgical, neurologic, and cardiologic centers in Europe that have described a drop in emergency cases. The reasons for this drop that seems to affect various medical fields and countries across Europe are still unidentified. Morbidity and mortality rates are still unknown, and efforts should be made to facilitate neurosurgical emergency care during a pandemic lockdown.

A randomized clinical trial of home telemonitoring in patients with advanced heart and lung diseases.

Brief Summary The addition of home monitoring to an integrated care model in patients with advanced chronic heart/lung diseases decreases mortality, hospital and emergency admissions, improves functional status, HRQoL, and is cost-effective. Background Telemonitoring is a promising implement for medicine, but its efficacy is unknown in patients with advanced heart and lung failure (AHLF). Objective To determine the efficacy of a telemonitoring system added to coordinated clinical care in patients with AHLF. Design Randomized phase 3 multicenter clinical trial with parallel groups in adult patients. Participants Five spanish centers including patients with AHLF at discharge or in out-patient clinics. Intervention Patients were randomly assigned to receive a remote bio-parameters telemonitoring system (TELECARE) or best usual care (UCARE). TELECARE patients were provided with devices that collected symptoms and bio-parameters, and transferred them synchronously to a call-center, with a real-time health-care response. Main Measures Primary end point was the need of admissions/emergency room visits at 45, 90, 180 days. Secondary end points included health care requirements, mortality, functional assessment, health related quality of life (HRQoL), perceived satisfaction, and cost-efficacy. Results 510 patients were included (54.5% women, median age 76.5 years; 63.1% suffered heart failure, 13.9% lung failure, and 22.9% both conditions). Clinical and functional features were comparable in both arms. TELECARE globally needed less admissions with respect UCARE after 45 days of inclusion (35.4% vs. 46.9%, p < 0.05). This tendency was maintained in the subgroups of patients with multimorbidity (34.2% vs. 46.9%, p < 0.05), intermediate risk of mortality (36.5% vs. 51.1%, p < 0.05), and those included after hospital discharge (34.9% vs. 50.5%, p < 0.01). HRQoL significantly improved (TELECARE/UCARE EuroQol baseline of 56.2 ± 18.2/55.1 ± 19.7, p = 0.054, and 64 ± 19.9/56.3 ± 21.6; p < 0.01 at the end), and perceived satisfaction was also higher (6.77 ± 0.52 vs. 6.62 ± 0.81, p < 0.001; highest possible score = 7). A trend to mortality decrease was also observed (12.9% vs. 19.3%, p = 0.13). TELECARE was cost-efficacious (TELECARE/UCARE QALY 3.94 Euros/0.81Euros). Conclusions The addition of a telemonitoring system to an integrated care model in patients with AHLF decreases hospital and emergency admissions, improves functional status as well as HRQoL, and is cost-efficacious.

Trends of chronic illness in emergency department admissions among elderly adults in a tertiary hospital over ten years

Background This study aimed to determine to what extent an aging population and shift to chronic illness has contributed to emergency admissions at a tertiary care hospital over ten years. Methods This was a retrospective observational study performed using a database of all emergency admissions from the Emergency Department (ED) at a single tertiary hospital in Singapore during a ten-year period (January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2017). Emergency admissions were defined as ED visits with inpatient admission as the disposition. This study analyzed the trends of demographics, pre-existing comorbidities, chronic conditions or ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSC) of all patients who underwent emergency admissions in Singapore General Hospital. Results A total of 446,484 emergency records were included. For elderly patients, the proportions of them had pre-existing multimorbidity at the time of undergoing emergency admissions were found to be lower at the end the 10-year study period relative to the beginning of the study period. The proportions of emergency admissions whose ED primary diagnoses were categorized as chronic conditions and certain chronic ACSC including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes complications, and epilepsy also decreased for elderly patients over the 10-year study period. Conclusions In Singapore, despite a rapidly aging population, there have been surprisingly lower proportions of chronic conditions, pre-existing comorbidities, and chronic ACSC among the elderly emergency admissions. This is possibly consistent with an overall improved management of the chronic conditions among the elderly population. Future studies should include similar studies at the national level and comparison with other healthcare settings in different countries.

Cohort study to explore the association between the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown and admissions for violence in North East and North Cumbria

ObjectivesExplore the association between the first national lockdown associated with the COVID-19 pandemic on admissions for violence and the relationship with deprivation.DesignPopulation-based longitudinal cohort study.SettingNorth East and North Cumbria (NENC) area of England.ParticipantsAll individuals living in the NENC (total population 3.1 million) admitted 2017/2018, 2018/2019, 2019/2020.Main outcome measuresHospital Episode Statistics were extracted at Lower Layer Super Output Area and the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2019 decile applied. Directly standardised rates were explored for number of accident and emergency (A&E) attendances (per 1000); Alcohol-related admissions using Public Health England (PHE) Fingertips tool (per 100 000, ID 91414) and emergency admissions for violence (including sexual violence) (per 100 000) (ID 11201 classified by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)10 codes X85 to Y09).ResultsA&E attendances are higher in NENC compared with England (409.9 per 1000 v 359.2). A&E attendance was 81% higher in 2019/20 in the most deprived compared with the least deprived. Attendances dropped during the first national COVID-19 lockdown and by September 2020 had not returned to ‘normal’ levels.Admissions related to violence are a third higher in NENC (29% to 34% higher across 3 years) rates 7–10 times higher in most deprived than least deprived areas. Admission rates reduced during the first UK lock down but this bounced back by August higher than any of the previous 12 months.ConclusionEmergency admissions with violence appear to associate with the COVID-19 pandemic being initially higher than before the first national lockdown. This is in the context of overall A&E attendances which are lower post lockdown. Given that emergency admissions with violence have been consistently higher in the NENC compared with England over recent years, we suggest that targeted action is required in NENC to address health inequalities.

Socioeconomic deprivation and ethnicity inequalities in disruption to NHS hospital admissions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a national observational study

IntroductionHospital admissions in many countries fell dramatically at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Less is known about how care patterns differed by patient groups. We sought to determine whether areas with higher levels of socioeconomic deprivation or larger ethnic minority populations saw larger falls in emergency and planned admissions in England.MethodsWe conducted a national observational study of hospital care in the English National Health Service (NHS) in 2019–2020. Weekly volumes of elective (planned) and emergency admissions in 2020 compared with 2019 were calculated for each census area. Multiple linear regression analysis was used to estimate the reductions in volumes for areas in different quintiles of socioeconomic deprivation and ethnic minority populations after controlling for national time trends and local area composition.ResultsBetween March and December 2020, there were 35.5% (3.0 million) fewer elective admissions and 22.0% (1.2 million) fewer emergency admissions with a non-COVID-19 primary diagnosis than in 2019. Areas with the largest share of ethnic minority populations experienced a 36.7% (95% CI 24.1% to 49.3%) larger reduction in non-primary COVID-19 emergency admissions compared with those with the smallest. The most deprived areas experienced a 10.1% (95% CI 2.6% to 17.7%) smaller reduction in non-COVID-19 emergency admissions compared with the least deprived. These patterns are not explained by differential prevalence of COVID-19 cases by area.ConclusionsEven in a healthcare system founded on the principle of equal access for equal need, the impact of COVID-19 on NHS hospital care for non-COVID patients has not been spread evenly by ethnicity and deprivation in England. While we cannot conclusively determine the mechanisms behind these differences, they risk exacerbating prepandemic health inequalities.

How is patient activation related to healthcare service utilisation? Evidence from electronic patient records in England

Background There is increasing awareness of the importance of patient activation (knowledge, skills, and confidence for managing one’s health and health care) among clinicians and policy makers, with emerging evidence showing higher levels of patient activation are associated with better health outcomes and experiences of health care. This study aimed to examine the association between patient activation and a wide range of specific types of healthcare service utilisation in England, including GP and non-GP primary care, elective and emergency hospital admissions, outpatient visits, and attendances at the Accident and Emergency department. Methods Data were derived from linked electronic patient records collected by primary and secondary healthcare providers in North West London between January 2016 and November 2019. Our analyses focused on adults (18+) with a valid Patient Activation Measure (PAM). After excluding patients with missing data, we had an analytical sample of 15,877 patients. Data were analysed using negative binomial regression and logistic regression models depending on the outcome variable. Results Patients had a mean activation score of 55.1 and a standard deviation (SD) of 17.7 (range: 0–100). They had an average of 5.4 GP visits (SD = 8.0), 26.8 non-GP visits (SD = 23.4) and 6.0 outpatient attendances (SD = 7.9) within a one-year follow-up. About 24.7% patients had at least one elective admission, 24.2% had one or more emergency admissions, and 42.3% had one or more A&E attendance within the follow-up. After accounting for a number of demographic and health factors, we found a linear (or proximately linear) association between patient activation and the number of GP visits, emergency admissions and A&E attendance, but a non-linear relationship between patient activation and the number of non-GP visits, the number of outpatient attendance and elective inpatient admission. Conclusions This study has provided strong empirical evidence from England linking patient activation with healthcare service utilisation. It suggests the value of supporting patient activation as a potential pathway to ease the burden of healthcare system.

P.226 Variations in and Determinants of Length of Stay at an Academic Spinal Care Center from 2006-2019

Background: Length of stay (LOS) is a surrogate for care complexity and a determinant of occupancy and service provision. Our primary goal was to assess changes in and determinants of LOS at a quaternary spinal care center. Secondary goals included identifying opportunities for improvement and determinants of future service planning. Methods: This is a prospective study of patients admitted from 2006 to 2019. Data included demographics, diagnostic category (degenerative, oncology, deformity, trauma, other), LOS (mean, median, interquartile range, standard deviation) and in-hospital adverse events (AEs). Results: 13,493 admissions were included. Mean age has increased from 48.4 (2006) to 58.1 years (2019) (p=<0.001). Mean age increased overtime for patients treated for deformity (p=<0.001), degenerative pathology (p=<0.001) and trauma (p=<0.001), but not oncology (p=0.702). Overall LOS has not changed over time (p=0.451). LOS increased in patients with degenerative pathology (p=0.019) but not deformity (p=0.411), oncology (p=0.051) or trauma (p=0.582). Emergency admissions increased overtime for degenerative pathologies (p=<0.001). AEs and SSIs have decreased temporally (p=<0.001). Conclusions: This is the first North American study to analyze temporal trends in LOS for spine surgery in an academic center. Understanding temporal trends in LOS and patient epidemiology can provide opportunities for intervention, targeted at the geriatric populations, to reduce LOS.

Do hospitals have a higher mortality rate on weekend admissions? An observational study to analyse weekend effect on urgent admissions to hospitals in Catalonia

Background‘Weekend effect’ is a term used to describe the increased mortality associated with weekend emergency admissions to hospital, in contrast with admission on weekdays. The objective of the present study is to determine whether the weekend effect is present in hospitals in Catalonia.MethodsWe analysed all urgent admissions in Catalonia in 2018, for a group of pathologies. Two groups were defined (those admitted on a weekday and those admitted on a weekend). We obtained mortality at 3, 7, 15 and 30 days, and applied a proportions test to both groups. Additionally, we used Cox’s regression for mortality at 30 days, using the admission on a weekend as the exposition, adjusting by socioeconomic and clinical variables. We used the hospital discharge database and the Central Registry of the Insured Population.Results72 427 admissions for the selected pathologies during 2018 were found. No statistically significant differences in mortality at 30 days (p=0.524) or at 15 days (p=0.119) according to the day of admission were observed. However, significant differences were found in mortality at 7 days (p=0.025) and at 3 days (p=0.002). The hazard rate associated with the weekend was 1.13 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.23). By contrast, the adjusted HR of the weekend interaction with time was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.99 to 1.00).ConclusionsThere is a weekend effect, but it is not constant in time. This could suggest the existence of dysfunctions in the quality of care during the weekend.

Forecasting emergency department admissions

The emergency department of a hospital plays an extremely important role in the healthcare of patients. To maintain a high quality service, clinical professionals need information on how patient flow will evolve in the immediate future. With accurate emergency department forecasts it is possible to better manage available human resources by allocating clinical staff before peak periods, thus preventing service congestion, or releasing clinical staff at less busy times. This paper describes a solution developed for the presentation of hourly, four-hour, eight-hour and daily number of admissions to a hospital’s emergency department. A 10-year history (2009–2018) of the number of emergency admissions in a Portuguese hospital was used. To create the models several methods were tested, including exponential smoothing, SARIMA, autoregressive and recurrent neural network, XGBoost and ensemble learning. The models that generated the most accurate hourly time predictions were the recurrent neural network with one-layer (sMAPE = 23.26%) and with three layers (sMAPE = 23.12%) and XGBoost (sMAPE = 23.70%). In terms of efficiency, the XGBoost method has by far outperformed all others. The success of the recurrent neuronal network and XGBoost machine learning methods applied to the prediction of the number of emergency department admissions has been demonstrated here, with an accuracy that surpasses the models found in the literature.