Future Land-use and Land-cover Scenarios for Mapping Flood-prone Areas in Pato Branco City, Brazil

Urban flooding is the most common type of disaster and the one that hit people most. Unplanned urbanization processes increase the recurrence of these events due to soil impermeabilization. Thus, land-use and land-cover is an important factor for urban flood research. Besides, mapping flood-prone areas has been an alternative for disaster prevention and urban planning. However, the use of future land-use and land-cover scenarios for flood mapping is a factor that still requires investigation. The study that is being developed by the authors of this paper aims to identify flood-prone areas in the upper third of the Ligeiro River basin in the city of Pato Branco, Parana, Brazil. For this purpose, this research makes use of the GIS-AHP integration, considering a current scenario and future land-use and land-cover scenarios. Therefore, the objective of the present study is to construct possible land-use and land-cover scenarios, according to municipal legislation, that could serve as a basis for mapping flood-prone areas. Two scenarios were built using Geographic Information Systems software. This tool proved to be efficient in the elaboration of maps and land representation. Pato Branco already has a history of flooding with the current scenario of land-use and land-cover. With future land-use and land-cover scenarios, it is possible to verify the influence of urban sprawl on urban flooding. Keywords: Land-use and land-cover (LULC), Floods, Geographic Information Systems (GIS), Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)