scholarly journals Applying principles of uncertainty within coastal hazard assessments to better support coastal adaptation

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott A. Stephens ◽  
Robert G. Bell ◽  
Judy Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Coastal Hazard ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Coastal Inundation ◽  
Inundation Depth ◽  
Decision Points ◽  
Hazard Assessments

Coastal inundation is an increasing problem. Sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of inundation, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision-making along adaptive pathways is now being used internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating decision points in the future however it unfolds. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in such planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments which recognizes different types of decision and identifies the types of uncertainty that must be accounted for, such as statistical, scenario and deep uncertainty types. We show how coastal-inundation hazard can be mapped and presented in a way that clearly separates sources of uncertainty, so that they are transparent within a dynamic adaptive pathways planning process. Traditional coastal inundation maps show inundated area only. We present maps of inundation depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how much sea-level rise can be tolerated. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better identify decision points and their expected time range, which provides more useful input to the adaptation process than traditional coastal inundation assessments.

scholarly journals Applying principles of uncertainty within coastal hazard assessments to better support coastal adaptation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
SA Stephens ◽  
RG Bell ◽  
Judith Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Coastal Hazard ◽  
Adaptive Planning ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Hazard Assessments

© 2017 by the authors. Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities, local councils and infrastructure operators will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision making using adaptive pathways approaches, is now being applied internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating tipping points in the future when planning objectives are no longer being met. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in adaptive planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments. The framework provides a logical flow from the land use situation, to the related level of uncertainty as determined by the situation, to which hazard scenarios to model, to the complexity level of hazard modeling required, and to the possible decision type. Traditionally, coastal flood hazard maps show inundated areas only. We present enhanced maps of flooding depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of hazard exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how the exposure changes with sea-level rise, to better inform adaptive planning processes. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better inform identification of trigger points for adaptation pathways planning and their expected time range, compared to traditional coastal flooding hazard assessments.

scholarly journals Applying principles of uncertainty within coastal hazard assessments to better support coastal adaptation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
SA Stephens ◽  
RG Bell ◽  
Judith Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Time Range ◽  
Coastal Hazard ◽  
Adaptive Planning ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Hazard Assessments

© 2017 by the authors. Coastal hazards result from erosion of the shore, or flooding of low-elevation land when storm surges combine with high tides and/or large waves. Future sea-level rise will greatly increase the frequency and depth of coastal flooding and will exacerbate erosion and raise groundwater levels, forcing vulnerable communities to adapt. Communities, local councils and infrastructure operators will need to decide when and how to adapt. The process of decision making using adaptive pathways approaches, is now being applied internationally to plan for adaptation over time by anticipating tipping points in the future when planning objectives are no longer being met. This process requires risk and uncertainty considerations to be transparent in the scenarios used in adaptive planning. We outline a framework for uncertainty identification and management within coastal hazard assessments. The framework provides a logical flow from the land use situation, to the related level of uncertainty as determined by the situation, to which hazard scenarios to model, to the complexity level of hazard modeling required, and to the possible decision type. Traditionally, coastal flood hazard maps show inundated areas only. We present enhanced maps of flooding depth and frequency which clearly show the degree of hazard exposure, where that exposure occurs, and how the exposure changes with sea-level rise, to better inform adaptive planning processes. The new uncertainty framework and mapping techniques can better inform identification of trigger points for adaptation pathways planning and their expected time range, compared to traditional coastal flooding hazard assessments.

Coastal inundation under concurrent mean and extreme sea-level rise in Coral Gables, Florida, USA

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir J. Alarcon ◽  
Anna C. Linhoss ◽  
Christopher R. Kelble ◽  
Paul F. Mickle ◽  
Gonzalo F. Sanchez-Banda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Coastal Inundation

scholarly journals Living Beside the Rising Tide: Adapting to Sea Level Rise in Auckland, New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Georgina Hart
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Coastal Hazard ◽  
Mission Bay ◽  
Coastal Adaptation ◽  
Hazard Risk ◽  
Auckland Region

<p>The Earth's climate system is entering a period of dynamic change after millennia of relatively stable climate. Coastal communities will need to adapt to dynamically shifting coastal environments as the climate system changes and sea levels rise. This study adds to a growing literature that investigates coastal vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience to climate change. It investigates regional scale social and institutional barriers to adaptation to sea level rise; examines the exposure, sensitivity and adaptation options at two coastal settlements in the Auckland region – Mission Bay/Kohimarama and Kawakawa Bay; and it analyses coastal adaptation response options from a resilience perspective. Mission Bay/Kohimarama and Kawakawa Bay, Auckland will experience increasing coastal hazard risk as the numbers of people and property potentially affected by storm events increases as sea level rises. Findings from the present study suggest that existing settlements in the Auckland region may already be 'locked in' to a coastal adaptation approach focused on maintaining the current coastline through coastal stabilisation, an approach that will decrease community resilience and increase vulnerability in the long term, even if this is found to be a successful response in the short term. Retreat offers an alternative approach that is strongly aligned with reducing community vulnerability and increasing resilience; however, strong opposition from communities to any retreat approach is expected. Developing trusted climate science information, education around coastal hazard risk, and participatory community led decision-making are identified as central enablers for a retreat approach to be included as a viable coastal adaptation option for communities in the Auckland region.</p>

A modeling study of coastal inundation induced by storm surge, sea-level rise, and subsidence in the Gulf of Mexico

2013 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 1771-1794 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhaoqing Yang ◽  
Taiping Wang ◽  
Ruby Leung ◽  
Kathy Hibbard ◽  
Tony Janetos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gulf Of Mexico ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Coastal Inundation ◽  
Modeling Study

scholarly journals A Roadmap for Policy-Relevant Sea-Level Rise Research in the United Arab Emirates

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hannah Melville-Rea ◽  
Clare Eayrs ◽  
Nasser Anwahi ◽  
John A. Burt ◽  
Denise Holland ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Coastal Development ◽  
Research Network ◽  
Deep Uncertainty ◽  
Climate Change Research

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has a long-term policy horizon, the financial capital, and a vision for a sustainable knowledge-based economy. These characteristics uniquely situate it as a potential leader for sea-level rise research. Climate science is already growing, and at the center of the UAE's pivot toward climate research is a burgeoning concern for sea-level rise. Over 85% of the UAE's population and more than 90% of the nation's infrastructure is within a few meters of present-day sea-level. With its low-lying and shallow-sloping geography (about 35 cm per km), this high-value coastline, including the rapidly expanding cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi, is particularly vulnerable to sea-level rise. Meanwhile, limited regional research and data scarcity create deep uncertainty for sea-level projections. We set out a potential roadmap for the UAE to capitalize on its strengths to create usable and relevant sea-level projections for the region. With a newly established Climate Change Research Network, the UAE government is beginning to draw together universities and research centers for “furthering effective data collection and management, and advancing policy-relevant research on climate impacts and adaptation1.” By consolidating ideas from the science community within the UAE, we identify promoters and barriers to data gathering, information sharing, science-policy communication, and funding access. Our paper proposes pathways forward for the UAE to integrate sea-level science with coastal development and form best practices that can be scaled across climate science and throughout the region.

scholarly journals Living Beside the Rising Tide: Adapting to Sea Level Rise in Auckland, New Zealand

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Georgina Hart
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Dynamic Change ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Coastal Hazard ◽  
Mission Bay ◽  
Coastal Adaptation ◽  
Hazard Risk ◽  
Auckland Region

<p>The Earth's climate system is entering a period of dynamic change after millennia of relatively stable climate. Coastal communities will need to adapt to dynamically shifting coastal environments as the climate system changes and sea levels rise. This study adds to a growing literature that investigates coastal vulnerability, adaptation, and resilience to climate change. It investigates regional scale social and institutional barriers to adaptation to sea level rise; examines the exposure, sensitivity and adaptation options at two coastal settlements in the Auckland region – Mission Bay/Kohimarama and Kawakawa Bay; and it analyses coastal adaptation response options from a resilience perspective. Mission Bay/Kohimarama and Kawakawa Bay, Auckland will experience increasing coastal hazard risk as the numbers of people and property potentially affected by storm events increases as sea level rises. Findings from the present study suggest that existing settlements in the Auckland region may already be 'locked in' to a coastal adaptation approach focused on maintaining the current coastline through coastal stabilisation, an approach that will decrease community resilience and increase vulnerability in the long term, even if this is found to be a successful response in the short term. Retreat offers an alternative approach that is strongly aligned with reducing community vulnerability and increasing resilience; however, strong opposition from communities to any retreat approach is expected. Developing trusted climate science information, education around coastal hazard risk, and participatory community led decision-making are identified as central enablers for a retreat approach to be included as a viable coastal adaptation option for communities in the Auckland region.</p>

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