Testing the Rationality of Inflation Forecasts from Survey Data: Another Look at the SRC Expected Price Change Data

1989 ◽  
Vol 71 (4) ◽  
pp. 682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert W. Rich
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Price Change ◽  
Inflation Forecasts

scholarly journals Market Participants Neither Commit Predictable Errors nor Conform to REH: Evidence from Survey Data of Inflation Forecasts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roman Frydman ◽  
◽  
Joshua Stillwagon ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Forecast Revisions ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Inflation Forecasts

We develop a novel characterization of participants’ forecasts with a mixture of normal variables arising from a Markov component. Using this characterization, we formulate five behavioral specifications, including four implied by the diagnostic expectations approach, as well as three implied by REH, and derive several new predictions for Coibion and Gorodnichenko.s regression of forecast errors on forecast revisions. Predictions of all eight specifications are inconsistent with the observed instability of individual CG regressions’ coefficients, based on inflation forecasts from 24 professionals. Our findings suggest how to build on key insights of the REH and behavioral approaches in specifying individuals’ forecasts.

scholarly journals Budget 2022

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barra Roantree ◽  
Karina Doorley ◽  
Theano Kakoulidou ◽  
Seamus O'Malley
Keyword(s):  
Social Welfare ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Policy Making ◽  
Welfare System ◽  
Living Conditions ◽  
Microsimulation Model ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Policy Making Process ◽  
Employment Education

This Article outlines and assesses changes to the tax and welfare system announced as part of Budget 2022. It first looks at the main taxation measures announced before turning to employment, education and social welfare supports. It then considers the effect of the package of measures as a whole on the incomes of households using representative survey data from the Survey of Incomes and Living Conditions run on SWITCH – the ESRI’s tax and benefit microsimulation model – and ITSim – an indirect tax microsimulation model developed jointly by the ESRI and the Department of Finance. The Article concludes with some brief reflections on inflation forecasts and the policy-making process.

scholarly journals On the directional accuracy of inflation forecasts: evidence from South African survey data

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 884-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Pierdzioch ◽  
Monique B. Reid ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Directional Accuracy

Is the Personal Always Political?

2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 133-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Danny Osborne ◽  
Yannick Dufresne ◽  
Gregory Eady ◽  
Jennifer Lees-Marshment ◽  
Cliff van der Linden
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
National Survey ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Openness To Experience ◽  
Political Sophistication ◽  
Knowledge Based

Abstract. Research demonstrates that the negative relationship between Openness to Experience and conservatism is heightened among the informed. We extend this literature using national survey data (Study 1; N = 13,203) and data from students (Study 2; N = 311). As predicted, education – a correlate of political sophistication – strengthened the negative relationship between Openness and conservatism (Study 1). Study 2 employed a knowledge-based measure of political sophistication to show that the Openness × Political Sophistication interaction was restricted to the Openness aspect of Openness. These studies demonstrate that knowledge helps people align their ideology with their personality, but that the Openness × Political Sophistication interaction is specific to one aspect of Openness – nuances that are overlooked in the literature.

Accuracy of provider-supplied human resources survey data.

1984 ◽  
Vol 39 (12) ◽  
pp. 1485-1486 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Knesper ◽  
David J. Pagnucco
Keyword(s):  
Human Resources ◽  
Survey Data
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