Gasoline in the Voter’s Pocketbook: Driving Times to Work and the Electoral Implications of Gasoline Price Fluctuations

Gasoline prices are often a heated topic during presidential election campaigns in the United States. Yet, presidents have limited control over gasoline prices. Do voters reward or punish the president for changes in gasoline prices? Why might voters blame the president for an outcome beyond direct presidential control? This study addresses these questions by testing the effects of gasoline prices on pocketbook retrospection by voters. To capture the personal economic burden of gasoline prices, we rely on average driving times to work, given the inelastic nature of gasoline consumption for commuting. The results provide evidence for pocketbook voting: constituencies with longer average driving times to work are more likely to hold the president accountable for gasoline price increases. These findings have broader implications regarding electoral accountability and rationality in voting.

The effect of energy subsidies on the sustainability of economy, society and environment: A case study of Iran

The elimination of energy subsidies leads to the increase in CPI (Consumer Price Index) di-rectly and indirectly. In this study, the effects removing energy subsidies on the Iranian econ-omies have been investigated; though, the main innovation introduced in the study was to con-sider the effect of energy price realization on the economy with respect to the monetary policy (path) that can be regarded as the third option; that is, rising energy price creates new sources that can cover the deficits of the countries. The countries don't need to cover their budget defi-cits by borrowing from the central bank; for this purpose, dynamic modeling in Vensim soft-ware was used via the equations obtained from the Time Series Data set prepared from 2000 to 2014. The results show that the annual increase of 10, 20, and 30 percent of prices after 2011 could have reduced liquidity volume in 2014 by 0.04, 0.11, and 0.75 million billion Rials respectively and leading to CPI reduction by 4, 7 and 10.3 units. Besides, the results indicated that the households reacted to gasoline price change more than the other two energy carriers; that is, gas and electricity. And the first income decile was the most sensitive decile of popula-tion towards price changes. compared to 2009, gasoline, gas and electricity consumption of the first decile declined by 68.5%, 21%, and 10% in 2010, respectively.

An Impulse-Regime Switching Game Model of Vertical Competition

We study a new kind of nonzero-sum stochastic differential game with mixed impulse/switching controls, motivated by strategic competition in commodity markets. A representative upstream firm produces a commodity that is used by a representative downstream firm to produce a final consumption good. Both firms can influence the price of the commodity. By shutting down or increasing generation capacities, the upstream firm influences the price with impulses. By switching (or not) to a substitute, the downstream firm influences the drift of the commodity price process. We study the resulting impulse-regime switching game between the two firms, focusing on explicit threshold-type equilibria. Remarkably, this class of games naturally gives rise to multiple potential Nash equilibria, which we obtain thanks to a verification-based approach. We exhibit three candidate types of equilibria depending on the ultimate number of switches by the downstream firm (zero, one or an infinite number of switches). We illustrate the diversification effect provided by vertical integration in the specific case of the crude oil market. Our analysis shows that the diversification gains strongly depend on the pass-through from the crude price to the gasoline price.

Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea

This study decomposed shocks of the global crude oil (GCO) market and Korean gasoline (KG) market into six types using the structural vector auto-regressive model. Breaking down the shocks into six, we analyzed how each shock affects the macroeconomy and gasoline market in Korea. Results of the analysis revealed that the oil supply shock did not cause a large fluctuation in gasoline prices, but it harmed the macroeconomy. By contrast, the two shocks on the demand side of the GCO market caused a large increase in domestic gasoline prices, but they did not negatively affect the macroeconomy. Meanwhile, in the KG market, gasoline-refining shock and gasoline demand shock caused a significant increase in gasoline prices. Both shocks had some negative effects on the Korean macroeconomy at a certain point, but the effects are not as strong as the oil supply shock. However, the gasoline distribution shock in Korea rarely caused negative consequences for major macroeconomic variables. Moreover, analyzing the KG prices through historical decomposition, we found that the two demand-side factors of the GCO market and the demand shock of the KG market have had the most important influence on the gasoline price since the 2000s. From the analysis, the increase in gasoline prices in Korea since the 2000s can be inferred to have no significant negative impact on the macroeconomy. Therefore, the essential factors of price fluctuations must be focused on in analyzing domestic gasoline price and their impact on the macroeconomy.