The Prehistory of the Classical Interpretation of Probability:

2012 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Gary Koop ◽  
Dale J. Poirier ◽  
Justin L. Tobias

2021 ◽  
pp. 125-142
Author(s):  
Andrew C. A. Elliott

Gambling is an ancient human activity. We indulge ourselves by allowing ourselves to experience the dangers and thrills of chance in a somewhat controlled way. The history of lotteries and related games is explored. The chances of drawing various poker hands are laid out. The role of probability in horse racing is described, and how the odds quoted are not strictly statements of probability, but terms on which business is to be done. Political prediction betting markets give us a further interpretation of probability as a way of expressing strength of opinion in a quantifiable, albeit flawed way. Wagers encourage boasters to put their money where their mouth is, and so to quantify their degree of belief.


Author(s):  
Margaret Schabas

Keynes is best known as an economist but, in the tradition of John Stuart Mill and William Stanley Jevons, he also made significant contributions to inductive logic and the philosophy of science. Keynes’ only book explicitly on philosophy, A Treatise on Probability (1921), remains an important classic on the subject. It develops a non-frequentist interpretation of probability as the key to sound judgment and scientific reasoning. His General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) is the watershed of twentieth-century macroeconomics. While not, strictly speaking, a philosophical work, it nonetheless advances distinct readings of rationality, uncertainty and social justice.


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