scholarly journals Country-Specific Oil Supply Shocks and the Global Economy: A Counterfactual Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 (242) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamiar Mohaddes ◽  
◽  
M. Hashem Pesaran ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Counterfactual Analysis ◽  
Oil Supply ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Country Specific ◽  
Oil Supply Shocks

scholarly journals Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christiane Baumeister ◽  
Gert Peersman
Keyword(s):  
Oil Price ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Oil Supply ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Demand ◽  
Substantial Decline ◽  
Oil Supply Shocks

Using time-varying BVARs, we find a substantial decline in the short-run price elasticity of oil demand since the mid-1980s. This finding helps explain why an oil production shortfall of the same magnitude is associated with a stronger response of oil prices and more severe macroeconomic consequences over time, while a similar oil price increase is associated with smaller output effects. Oil supply shocks also account for a smaller fraction of real oil price variability in more recent periods, in contrast to oil demand shocks. The overall effects of oil supply disruptions on the US economy have, however, been modest. (JEL E31, E32, Q41, Q43)

scholarly journals The Effects of the Real Oil Price on Regional Wage Dispersion

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 115-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Kehrig ◽  
Nicolas L. Ziebarth
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Model ◽  
Energy Intensity ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Labor Demand ◽  
Wage Dispersion ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Oil Supply ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Demand Shifts ◽  
Oil Supply Shocks

We find that oil supply shocks decrease average real wages, particularly skilled wages, and increase wage dispersion across regions, particularly unskilled wage dispersion. In a model with spatial energy intensity differences and nontradables, labor demand shifts, while explaining the response of average wages to oil supply shocks, have counterfactual implications for the response of wage dispersion. Only an additional response in labor supply can explain this latter fact, highlighting the importance of general equilibrium effects in a spatial context. We provide additional empirical evidence of regionally directed worker reallocation and housing prices consistent with our spatial model. Finally, we show that a calibrated version of our model can quantitatively match the estimated effects of oil supply shocks. (JEL E24, J22, J23, J24, J31, Q35, R23)

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