TIME-VARYING MARKET PRICE OF RISK AND AUTOREGRESSIVE ERROR STRUCTURE OF OIL PRICES

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carla Gomes Costa de Souza ◽  
Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube
Keyword(s):  
Market Price ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Factor Models ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Market Price Of Risk ◽  
Error Structure ◽  
Price Of Risk ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Oil Contracts ◽  
Smith Model

In this paper we investigate the inclusion of a time-varying market price of risk in oil price factor models. Additionally an autoregressive error structure is adopted to filter this property of financial series. We use the Schwartz and Smith model, which is well established in the literature on commodity prices. The analysis is easily extended to different types of factor models. The empirical application considered the future oil contracts traded on the NYMEX. We find that considering a time-varying market price of risk and the autoregressive structure improves the fit of the empirical data.

scholarly journals Is There A Difference Between Domestic And Foreign Risk Premium? The Case Of China Stock Market

2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (5) ◽  
pp. 1287
Author(s):  
Frederic Teulon ◽  
Khaled Guesmi ◽  
Salma Fattoum
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Expected Return ◽  
Market Price Of Risk ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Price Of Risk ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
The Difference

This article studies the dynamic return and market price of risk for Chinese stocks (A-B shares). A Multivariate DCC-GARCH model is used to capture the feature of time-varying volatility in stock returns. We show evidence of different pricing mechanisms explained by the difference in the expected return and market price of risk between A and B shares. However, the significance of the difference between market prices of risk disappears if GARCH models are used.

scholarly journals Implicit incentives for fund managers with partial information

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Flavio Angelini ◽  
Katia Colaneri ◽  
Stefano Herzel ◽  
Marco Nicolosi
Keyword(s):  
Asset Allocation ◽  
Partial Information ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Expected Returns ◽  
Martingale Method ◽  
Fund Manager ◽  
Market Price Of Risk ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Price Of Risk

AbstractWe study the optimal asset allocation problem for a fund manager whose compensation depends on the performance of her portfolio with respect to a benchmark. The objective of the manager is to maximise the expected utility of her final wealth. The manager observes the prices but not the values of the market price of risk that drives the expected returns. Estimates of the market price of risk get more precise as more observations are available. We formulate the problem as an optimization under partial information. The particular structure of the incentives makes the objective function not concave. Therefore, we solve the problem by combining the martingale method and a concavification procedure and we obtain the optimal wealth and the investment strategy. A numerical example shows the effect of learning on the optimal strategy.

Multidimensional Models: Martingale Approach

2019 ◽  
pp. 191-201
Author(s):  
Tomas Björk
Keyword(s):  
Market Price ◽  
Representation Formula ◽  
Explicit Representation ◽  
Martingale Measure ◽  
Market Price Of Risk ◽  
Martingale Approach ◽  
Price Of Risk ◽  
Equivalent Martingale ◽  
Absence Of Arbitrage ◽  
Multidimensional Models

In this chapter we study a very general multidimensional Wiener-driven model using the martingale approach. Using the Girsanov Theorem we derive the martingale equation which is used to find an equivalent martingale measure. We provide conditions for absence of arbitrage and completeness of the model, and we discuss hedging and pricing. For Markovian models we derive the relevant pricing PDE and we also provide an explicit representation formula for the stochastic discount factor. We discuss the relation between the market price of risk and the Girsanov kernel and finally we derive the Hansen–Jagannathan bounds for the Sharpe ratio.

A Primer on Incomplete Markets

2019 ◽  
pp. 128-137
Author(s):  
Tomas Björk
Keyword(s):  
Incomplete Markets ◽  
Factor Model ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Market Price Of Risk ◽  
Market Incompleteness ◽  
Price Of Risk

We discuss market incompleteness within the relatively simple framework of a factor model. The corresponding pricing PDE is derived and we relate it to the market price of risk.

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