Systematic illiquidity, characteristic illiquidity, and stock returns: Timeseries analysis

The objective of this research is to investigate the relationship between illiquidity and stock prices on the Tunisian stock exchange. While previous researches tended to focus on one form of illiquidity to examine this relationship, our study unifies three forms of illiquidity at the same time. Indeed, we simultaneously consider illiquidity as systematic risk, as a characteristic of the market, and as a characteristic of the stock. The aggregate illiquidity of the market is the average of individual stock illiquidity. The illiquidity risk is the sensitivity of the stock price to illiquidity shocks. Shocks of market illiquidity are estimated by the innovations in the expected market illiquidity. Results show that investors on the Tunisian stock exchange do not require higher returns when they expect a rise of market illiquidity, whereas investors on U.S markets are compensated for higher expected market illiquidity. In addition, shocks of market illiquidity provoke a fall in stock prices of small caps, while large caps are not sensitive to market illiquidity shocks. This differs slightly from results based on U.S. data where illiquidity shocks reduce all stock prices but most notably those of small caps. Robustness tests validate our findings. Our results are consistent with previous studies which reported that the “zero-return” ratio predicts significantly the return-illiquidity relationship on emerging markets.

Essays on Financial Markets

<p><b>This thesis consists of five chapters. Chapter 1 is the preliminaries. Chapter 2 to chapter 4 are the three main chapters of this thesis, which covers the U.S. market, international market, and the Chinese market, respectively. Chapter 5 is the discussion.</b></p> <p>Chapter 1 is the preliminaries. It introduces the setting and motivations for the three topics covered in this thesis.</p> <p>Chapter 2 investigates how equity exchange-traded fund (ETF) ownership affects the cost of debt. I find that, by facilitating short-selling activities to execute disciplinary effects, equity ETF ownership decreases a firm's cost of debt. This negative association between equity ETF ownership and the cost of debt is more pronounced for firms with weaker information environments and lower bond ratings. The disciplinary effect works through a more active short-selling market provided by equity ETF ownership. However, I fail to establish the corporate governance channel, which is consistent with Schmidt and Fahlenbrach (2017) and Heath, Macciocchi, Michaely, and Ringgenberg (2021).. Those results are also robust to endogeneity.</p> <p>Chapter 3 studies the predictive power of the trend strategy in the international stock market. Using data from 49 markets, I find that a trend signal exploiting the short-,intermediate-, and long-term price information can predict stock returns cross-sectionally in the international market. The significance of the trend strategy is associated with market-level characteristics such as macroeconomic conditions, culture, and the information environment. The trend premium is more pronounced in markets with a more advanced macroeconomic status, a higher level of information uncertainty and individualism, and better accessibility to foreign investors. Nevertheless, the trend strategy only outperforms the momentum strategy in a relatively short horizon.</p> <p>Chapter 4 investigates whether margin-trading in the Chinese stock market reflects information or sentiment. At the aggregate level, I find no evidence of information-driven or sentiment-driven margin-trading behavior. At the individual stock level, both information-driven and sentiment-driven margin-trading exists, which are relevant to firm characteristics. I also find the likelihood of sentiment-driven margin-trading significantly declined after the regulator enforced tighter rules for margin-trading in 2015.</p> <p>Chapter 5 summarizes the main findings of the three topics, discusses the implications of the findings, and points out the future direction for research.</p>

The Moderating Role of Return on Assets on Sharia Stock Returns: A Case Study on the Jakarta Islamic Index

This research aims to analyze the impact of Debt to Equity Ratio (DER), Exchange Value, and Index ISR in Sharia Stock Return pass of Return on Asset (ROA) in a company administered in the Jakarta Islamic Index 2013-2017 period. This sample choosing with the purposive sampling method with the total sample as 29 from 30 companies. The data used in this study is the secondary data, and data analysis used is the multiple linear regression analysis and path analysis. The research result indicates that experiment T Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) and Index ISR are not influential in Stock Return. Exchange Value and Return on Asset (ROA) significance of Stock Return. Debt to Equity Ratio (DER) and Index ISR influence Return on Asset (ROA). At the same time, Exchange Value is not influential with Return on Asset. Experiment F refers that DER, Exchange Value, and Index ISR influence Return on Asset and Stock Return. However, ROA cannot mediate the relation between DER, Exchange Value, and Index ISR in Stock Return.

Patent Thickets, Stock Returns, and Conditional CAPM

Patent thickets, a phenomenon of fragmented ownership of overlapping patent rights, hamper firms’ commercialization of patents and thus deliver asset pricing implications. We show that firms with deeper patent thickets are involved in more patent litigations, launch fewer new products, and become less profitable in the future. These firms are also associated with lower subsequent stock returns, which can be explained by a conditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) based on a general equilibrium model that features heterogeneous market betas conditional on time-varying aggregate productivity. This explanation is supported by further evidence from factor regressions and stochastic discount factor tests. This paper was accepted by Karl Diether, finance.

Circular Economy Impact Analysis on Stock Performances: An Empirical Comparison with the Euro Stoxx 50® ESG Index

Environmental issues have a considerable impact in all economic sectors, also influencing financial markets. As a result, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) awareness is rising in the financial sector. In this perspective, the concept of circular economy (CE) assumes central relevance. The aim of our study is to investigate the relationship between CE strategies and market performance; to this end, we use ESG scores as a proxy for CE. Our initial assumption is that since CE is a component of the “E” factor—in that it can generate positive and measurable environmental impacts—then it can be associated with the ESG score. Therefore, we can methodologically overcome the lack of a specific score related to CE. We use a preselection model based on historical performance by verifying the percentages of the presence of stocks in the two selected indices, namely ESG Euro Stoxx 50® and Euro Stoxx 50-ESG. Overall, we find that ESG profiles have a positive impact on stock performance, although ESG scores do not express higher performance per se. Furthermore, our analysis shows that, to date, there is no evidence that CE initiatives can influence stock returns.

Stock derivatives and seasoned equity offerings

PurposeThe article aims to explore if stock derivative types (stock options and stock warrants) are associated with stock returns for firms undergoing seasoned equity offerings (SEOs).Design/methodology/approachThe authors regress stock returns against stock derivatives for periods around SEO announcements with standard errors clustered at the month level.FindingsThe authors find that lower stock derivatives holdings for the fiscal year after the SEO are associated with superior pre-SEO returns. This can be explained by owners exercising their derivatives to capitalize on the pre-SEO price run-up. The authors find that greater stock option holdings by insiders for the fiscal year after the SEO are associated with superior post-SEO returns for up to ten years after the SEO announcement. This new finding does not hold for stock warrants.Research limitations/implicationsStock derivatives are supplied by Capital IQ. Given their description, the authors infer that stock options are owned largely by insiders. Thus, the insider conclusions for stock options depend on this implication.Practical implicationsStock options and stock warrants can be used strategically to reward stock derivative owners of strong performing firms for past performance. Stock options can be used to motivate insiders (primarily key executives) to achieve superior future performance.Originality/valueThis study is unique in comparing the influence of holdings for stock options and stock warrants on stock price performance around SEOs. The authors show that the sign of the association depends on whether the test includes pre-SEO periods.

Evidence of Economic Policy Uncertainty and COVID-19 Pandemic on Global Stock Returns

This paper examines the impact of changes in economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and COVID-19 shock on stock returns. Tests of 16 global stock market indices, using monthly data from January 1990 to August 2021, suggest a negative relation between the stock return and a country’s EPU. Evidence suggests that a rise in the U.S. EPU causes not only a decline in a country’s stock return, but also a negative spillover effect on the global market; however, we cannot find a comparable negative effect from global EPU to U.S. stocks. Evidence suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic has a negative impact that significantly affects stock return worldwide. This study also finds an indirect COVID-19 impact that runs through a change in domestic EPU and, in turn, affects stock return. Evidence shows significant COVID-19 effects that change relative stock returns between the U.S. and global markets, creating a decoupling phenomenon.