Quasi-Biennial Oscillation of Zonal Wind in the Equatorial Stratosphere and Its Influence on Interannual Fluctuations in the Depth of the Antarctic Ozone Hole

2021 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 287-294
Author(s):  
I. P. Gabis
2021 ◽  
pp. 5-15
Author(s):  
I. P. Gabis ◽  

The Antarctic ozone hole is observed annually in spring due to the complex influence of photochemical and dynamical processes. The increased concentration of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere causes a long-term negative trend in total ozone (TO). Intense interannual fluctuations in TO against a background of the long-term trend associated with dynamic atmospheric processes do not allow assessing definitely the direction of the trend (growth/decline) in the recent years. Studying the dependence of interannual fluctuations in the ozone hole intensity on the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) allows identifying natural causes of variations and assessing the trend due to anthropogenic factors. The long-term QBO forecast allows predicting different phenomena that depend on the QBO.


2019 ◽  
Vol 69 (1) ◽  
pp. 29
Author(s):  
Andrew R. Klekociuk ◽  
Matthew B. Tully ◽  
Paul B. Krummel ◽  
Oleksandr Evtushevsky ◽  
Volodymyr Kravchenko ◽  
...  

We review the 2017 Antarctic ozone hole, making use of various meteorological reanalyses, and in-situ, satellite and ground-based measurements of ozone and related trace gases, and ground-based measurements of ultraviolet radiation. The 2017 ozone hole was associated with relatively high-ozone concentrations over the Antarctic region compared to other years, and our analysis ranked it in the smallest 25% of observed ozone holes in terms of size. The severity of stratospheric ozone loss was comparable with that which occurred in 2002 (when the stratospheric vortex exhibited an unprecedented major warming) and most years prior to 1989 (which were early in the development of the ozone hole). Disturbances to the polar vortex in August and September that were associated with intervals of anomalous planetary wave activity resulted in significant erosion of the polar vortex and the mitigation of the overall level of ozone depletion. The enhanced wave activity was favoured by below-average westerly winds at high southern latitudes during winter, and the prevailing easterly phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Using proxy information on the chemical make-up of the polar vortex based on the analysis of nitrous oxide and the likely influence of the QBO, we suggest that the concentration of inorganic chlorine, which plays a key role in ozone loss, was likely similar to that in 2014 and 2016, when the ozone hole was larger than that in 2017. Finally, we found that the overall severity of Antarctic ozone loss in 2017 was largely dictated by the timing of the disturbances to the polar vortex rather than interannual variability in the level of inorganic chlorine.


2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. T. J. de Laat ◽  
R. J. van der A ◽  
M. van Weele

Abstract. This study presents a sensitivity analysis of multivariate regressions of recent springtime Antarctic vortex ozone trends using a "big data" ensemble approach. Our results indicate that the poleward heat flux (Eliassen–Palm flux) and the effective chlorine loading respectively explain most of the short-term and long-term variability in different Antarctic springtime total ozone records. The inclusion in the regression of stratospheric volcanic aerosols, solar variability and the quasi-biennial oscillation is shown to increase rather than decrease the overall uncertainty in the attribution of Antarctic springtime ozone because of large uncertainties in their respective records. Calculating the trend significance for the ozone record from the late 1990s onwards solely based on the fit of the effective chlorine loading is not recommended, as this does not take fit residuals into account, resulting in too narrow uncertainty intervals, while the fixed temporal change of the effective chlorine loading does not allow for any flexibility in the trends. When taking fit residuals into account in a piecewise linear trend fit, we find that approximately 30–60% of the regressions in the full ensemble result in a statistically significant positive springtime ozone trend over Antarctica from the late 1990s onwards. Analysis of choices and uncertainties in time series show that, depending on choices in time series and parameters, the fraction of statistically significant trends in parts of the ensemble can range from negligible to a complete 100% significance. We also find that, consistent with expectations, the number of statistically significant trends increases with increasing record length. Although our results indicate that the use multivariate regressions is a valid approach for assessing the state of Antarctic ozone hole recovery, and it can be expected that results will move towards more confidence in recovery with increasing record length, uncertainties in choices currently do not yet support formal identification of recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole.


Nature ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 575 (7781) ◽  
pp. 46-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susan Solomon

2004 ◽  
Vol 31 (21) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Newman ◽  
S. Randolph Kawa ◽  
Eric R. Nash

Science ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 332 (6032) ◽  
pp. 925-926 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. B. Feldstein

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