Long-Term Performance Evaluation of Main Cable for Large Span Suspension Bridge Based on ARIMA Model

Main cables are major load-bearing components and play a decisive role in the long-term performance of suspension bridges. In particular, the wide application of health monitoring systems in large-span bridges facilitates a new channel for the performance evaluation of bridges. Under this context, Xihoumen Bridge is taken as the engineering research background. The long-term performance of the bridge’s main cable was evaluated by analyzing the main cable strand force data from January 2015 to October 2020, which was collected by the anchor rope meter. Firstly, the difference calculation was performed on the basis of the modeling theory of stationary time series to realize the stationary process of the original time series. Then, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model is established to predict the main cable strand force of the Xihoumen Bridge by model order estimation and parameter identification. Finally, the load degree index is defined in the discussion part to evaluate the long-term performance and determine the performance grading of the main cable.