scholarly journals Evolution of Drought–Flood Abrupt Alternation and Its Impacts on Surface Water Quality from 2020 to 2050 in the Luanhe River Basin

Author(s):  
Wuxia Bi ◽  
Baisha Weng ◽  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
Yuheng Yang ◽  
Ting Xu ◽  
...  

It has become a hot issue to study extreme climate change and its impacts on water quality. In this context, this study explored the evolution characteristics of drought–flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) and its impacts on total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorous (TP) pollution, from 2020 to 2050, in the Luanhe river basin (LRB), based on the predicted meteorological data of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) climate scenarios and simulated surface water quality data of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results show that DFAA occurred more frequently in summer, with an increasing trend from northwest to southeast of the LRB, basically concentrated in the downstream plain area, and the irrigation area. Meanwhile, most of the DFAA events were in light level. The incidence of TN pollution was much larger than the incidence of TP pollution and simultaneous occurrence of TN and TP pollution. The TN pollution was more serious than TP pollution in the basin. When DFAA occurred, TN pollution almost occurred simultaneously. Also, when TP pollution occurred, the TN pollution occurred simultaneously. These results could provide some references for the effects and adaptation-strategies study of extreme climate change and its influence on surface water quality.

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 411-420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roohollah Noori ◽  
Abdulreza Karbassi ◽  
Amir Khakpour ◽  
Mohammadreza Shahbazbegian ◽  
Hassan Mohammadi Khalf Badam ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Wuxia Bi ◽  
Baisha Weng ◽  
Zhe Yuan ◽  
Mao Ye ◽  
Cheng Zhang ◽  
...  

It is of great significance to study the effects and mechanisms of the key driving forces of surface water quality deterioration—climate change and LUCC (land use and land cover change). The Luanhe River Basin (LRB) in north-eastern China was examined for qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the responses of total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads on different climate scenarios and LUCC scenarios. The results show that from 1963 to 2017, the TN and TP loads basically presented a negative correlation with the temperature change (except for winter), while showing a significant positive correlation with the precipitation change. The incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to temperature increase. From 2020 to 2050, the annual average loads of TN and TP were slightly lower than from 1963 to 2017. The contribution of rising temperature was more significant on nutrient loads. Also, the incidence of TN pollution is sensitive to the future climate change. Under LUCC scenarios, the TN and TP loads and pollution incidence increased correspondingly with the decrease of natural land. The evolution characteristics analysis can provide support for the effect and adaptation-strategies study of climate change and LUCC on surface water quality.


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