Multiple Indicators of Extreme Changes in Snow-Dominated Streamflow Regimes, Yakima River Basin Region, USA

Snow plays a major role in the hydrological cycle. Variations in snow duration and timing can have a negative impact on water resources. Excluding predicted changes in snowmelt rates and amounts could result in deleterious infrastructure, military mission, and asset impacts at military bases across the US. A change in snowpack can also lead to water shortages, which in turn can affect the availability of irrigation water. We performed trend analyses of air temperature, snow water equivalent (SWE) at 22 SNOTEL stations, and streamflow extremes for selected rivers in the snow-dependent and heavily irrigated Yakima River Basin (YRB) located in the Pacific Northwest US. There was a clear trend of increasing air temperature in this study area over a 30 year period (water years 1991–2020). All stations indicated an increase in average air temperatures for December (0.97 °C/decade) and January (1.12 °C/decade). There was also an upward trend at most stations in February (0.28 °C/decade). In December–February, the average air temperatures were 0.82 °C/decade. From these trends, we estimate that, by 2060, the average air temperatures for December–February at most (82%) stations will be above freezing. Furthermore, analysis of SWE from selected SNOTEL stations indicated a decreasing trend in historical SWE, and a shift to an earlier peak SWE was also assumed to be occurring due of the shorter snow duration. Decreasing trends in snow duration, rain-on-snow, and snowmelt runoff also resulted from snow modeling simulations of the YRB and the nearby area. We also observed a shift in the timing of snowmelt-driven peak streamflow, as well as a statistically significant increase in winter maximum streamflow and decrease in summer maximum and minimum streamflow trends by 2099. From the streamflow trends and complementary GEV analysis, we show that the YRB basin is a system in transition with earlier peak flows, lower snow-driven maximum streamflow, and higher rainfall-driven summer streamflow. This study highlights the importance of looking at changes in snow across multiple indicators to develop future infrastructure and planning tools to better adapt and mitigate changes in extreme events.

Implications of water management representations for watershed hydrologic modeling in the Yakima River basin

Water management substantially alters natural regimes of streamflow through modifying retention time and water exchanges among different components of the terrestrial water cycle. Accurate simulation of water cycling in intensively managed watersheds, such as the Yakima River basin (YRB) in the Pacific Northwest of the US, faces challenges in reliably characterizing influences of management practices (e.g., reservoir operation and cropland irrigation) on the watershed hydrology. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, we evaluated streamflow simulations in the YRB based on different reservoir operation and irrigation schemes. Simulated streamflow with the reservoir operation scheme optimized by the RiverWare model better reproduced measured streamflow than the simulation using the default SWAT reservoir operation scheme. Scenarios with irrigation practices demonstrated higher water losses through evapotranspiration (ET) and matched benchmark data better than the scenario that only considered reservoir operations. Results of this study highlight the importance of reliably representing reservoir operations and irrigation management for credible modeling of watershed hydrology. The methods and findings presented here hold promise to enhance water resources assessment that can be applied to other intensively managed watersheds.

Implications of water management representations for watershed hydrologic modeling in the Yakima River Basin

Water management substantially alters natural regimes of streamflow through modifying retention time and water exchanges among different components of the terrestrial water cycle. Accurate simulation of water cycling in intensively managed watersheds, such as the Yakima River Basin (YRB) in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S., faces challenges in reliably characterizing influences of management practices (e.g., reservoir operation and cropland irrigation) on the watershed hydrology. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, we evaluated streamflow simulations in the YRB based on different reservoir operation and irrigation schemes. Simulated streamflow with the reservoir operation scheme optimized by the RiverWare model better reproduced measured streamflow than the simulation using default SWAT reservoir operation scheme. Scenarios with irrigation practices demonstrated higher water losses through evapotranspiration (ET), and matched benchmark data better than the scenario that only considered reservoir operations. Results of this study highlight the importance of reliably representing reservoir operations and irrigation management for credible modeling of watershed hydrology. Both SWAT and RiverWare are community-based and have been widely tested and applied for reservoir operations and agricultural watershed modeling in regions across the globe. As such, the methods and findings presented here hold the promise to apply to other intensively managed watersheds to enhance water resources assessment.