future climate change
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2022 ◽  
Vol 204 ◽  
pp. 112012
Patricia Guzmán ◽  
Patricia Tarín-Carrasco ◽  
María Morales-Suárez-Varela ◽  
Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero

Ibis ◽  
2022 ◽  
Luke J. Sutton ◽  
David L. Anderson ◽  
Miguel Franco ◽  
Christopher J.W. McClure ◽  
Everton B.P. Miranda ◽  

Forests ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 119
Diego Rodríguez de Prado ◽  
Jose Riofrío ◽  
Jorge Aldea ◽  
Felipe Bravo ◽  
James McDermott ◽  

Estimating tree height is essential for modelling and managing both pure and mixed forest stands. Although height–diameter (H–D) relationships have been traditionally fitted for pure stands, attention must be paid when analyzing this relationship behavior in stands composed of more than one species. The present context of global change makes also necessary to analyze how this relationship is influenced by climate conditions. This study tends to cope these gaps, by fitting new H–D models for 13 different Mediterranean species in mixed forest stands under different mixing proportions along an aridity gradient in Spain. Using Spanish National Forest Inventory data, a total of 14 height–diameter equations were initially fitted in order to select the best base models for each pair species-mixture. Then, the best models were expanded including species proportion by area (mi) and the De Martonne Aridity Index (M). A general trend was found for coniferous species, with taller trees for the same diameter size in pure than in mixed stands, being this trend inverse for broadleaved species. Regarding aridity influence on H–D relationships, humid conditions seem to beneficiate tree height for almost all the analyzed species and species mixtures. These results may have a relevant importance for Mediterranean coppice stands, suggesting that introducing conifers in broadleaves forests could enhance height for coppice species. However, this practice only should be carried out in places with a low probability of drought. Models presented in our study can be used to predict height both in different pure and mixed forests at different spatio-temporal scales to take better sustainable management decisions under future climate change scenarios.

2022 ◽  
Christina C. Roggatz ◽  
Daniel R Parsons

Marine biofilms are functional communities that shape habitats by providing a range of structural and functional services integral to coastal ecosystems. Impacts of climate change on biological aspects of such communities are increasingly studied, but impacts on the chemicals that mediate key interactions of biofilm organisms have largely been overlooked. Acyl-homoserine lactones (AHLs), crucial bacterial signals within biofilms, are known to degrade through pH and temperature-dependent hydrolysis. However, the impact of climate change on AHLs and thus on biofilm form and function is presently unknown. This study investigates the impact of changes in pH and temperature on the hydrolysis rate, half-life time and quantitative abundance of different AHLs on daily and seasonal timescales for current conditions and future climate change scenarios. We established the mathematical relationships between pH, hydrolysis rates/half-life times and temperature, which revealed that natural daily pH-driven changes within biofilms cause the greatest fluctuations in AHL concentration (up to 9-fold). Season-dependant temperature enhanced or reduced the observed daily dynamics, leading to higher winter and lower summer concentrations and caused a shift in timing of the highest and lowest AHL concentration by up to two hours. Simulated future conditions based on climate change projections caused an overall reduction of AHL degradation and led to higher AHL concentrations persisting for longer across both the daily and seasonal cycles. This study provides valuable quantitative insights into the theoretical natural dynamics of AHL concentrations. We highlight critical knowledge gaps on the scale of abiotic daily and seasonal fluctuations affecting estuarine and coastal biofilms and on the biofilms' buffering capacity. Detailed experimental studies of daily and seasonal dynamics of AHL concentrations and assessment of the potential implications for a suite of more complex interactions are required. Substantial fluctuations like those we show in this study, particularly with regards to concentration and timing, will likely have far reaching implications for fundamental ecosystem processes and important ecosystem services such as larval settlement and coastal sediment stabilisation.

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
Hui Wang ◽  
Yangcui Ning ◽  
Chunlan Liu ◽  
Peng Xu ◽  
Wentao Zhang

We conducted dendroclimatological study on three dominant conifer tree species, Pinus koraiensis, Larix olgensis, and Picea jezoensis, in northeastern China for a better understanding of climate change impacts on temperate forest growth, by discussing the radial growth relationships of these tree species and projecting their radial growth trends under the future climate change scenarios. Based on the tree-ring samples collected from the upper altitude of Changbai Mountain, ring width chronologies were built to examine the growth relationships, and regression equations were established to project the future growth of the species under future climate change projected by the five general circulation models (GCMs) and four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although both temperature and precipitation showed varying degrees of relationships with growth of these three tree species, the limiting climate factors were species-specific. The tree-ring growth of P. koraiensis was limited by the summer temperature and precipitation at the end of growth, namely, significant positive correlations with the current July temperature and the previous September precipitation. Growth of L. olgensis was limited by the temperature before growing season, for its chronology was negatively correlated with the current February and previous December temperature (p < 0.05). The climatic conditions before and after growing season seemed to be the limiting factors of P. jezoensis growth, which was negatively correlated with the current February to April temperature and the current September temperature (p < 0.05), and positively correlated with the current August precipitation (p < 0.05). Under the gradual increasing of temperature predicted by the five GCMs and four RCP scenarios, the radial growth of P. Koraiensis will relatively increase, while that of L. olgensis and P. jezoensis will relatively decrease comparing to the base-line period (1981–2010). The specific growth–climate relationships and the future growth trends are species dependent. P. Koraiensis was the more suitable tree species for the forestation to maintain the sustainable forest in Changbai Mountain.

Energies ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 512
Andrew Wright ◽  
Eduardas Venskunas

The global climate is warming rapidly, with increasing frequency of severe events including heatwaves. Building insulation standards are improving to reduce emissions, but this can also lead to more overheating. Historically, UK house designers have not included adaptation measures to limit this. Most studies of the problem have had limited geographical or future climate scope. This study considers the comfort performance of a small modern house, in detached, semi-detached, and terrace (row) forms, but otherwise identical. Overheating is evaluated according to established criteria, including night-time bedroom hours over 26 °C. Simulations are carried out using median future weather years for current, 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s climates under medium- and high-emission scenarios for 14 regions of the UK. The results show a very large increase in overheating by the 2080s in all regions. With solar shading and natural ventilation, overheating is reduced considerably, maintaining comfort in most northern regions in the 2050s and a few northern regions in the 2080s. Differences between medium and high emissions are generally less than between different decades. Terraced (row) houses consistently overheat slightly more than semi-detached, with detached showing the least overheating.

Climate ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 6
Emmanuel Dubois ◽  
Marie Larocque ◽  
Sylvain Gagné ◽  
Marco Braun

Long-term changes in precipitation and temperature indirectly impact aquifers through groundwater recharge (GWR). Although estimates of future GWR are needed for water resource management, they are uncertain in cold and humid climates due to the wide range in possible future climatic conditions. This work aims to (1) simulate the impacts of climate change on regional GWR for a cold and humid climate and (2) identify precipitation and temperature changes leading to significant long-term changes in GWR. Spatially distributed GWR is simulated in a case study for the southern Province of Quebec (Canada, 36,000 km2) using a water budget model. Climate scenarios from global climate models indicate warming temperatures and wetter conditions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5; 1951–2100). The results show that annual precipitation increases of >+150 mm/yr or winter precipitation increases of >+25 mm will lead to significantly higher GWR. GWR is expected to decrease if the precipitation changes are lower than these thresholds. Significant GWR changes are produced only when the temperature change exceeds +2 °C. Temperature changes of >+4.5 °C limit the GWR increase to +30 mm/yr. This work provides useful insights into the regional assessment of future GWR in cold and humid climates, thus helping in planning decisions as climate change unfolds. The results are expected to be comparable to those in other regions with similar climates in post-glacial geological environments and future climate change conditions.

Eos ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 103 ◽  
Rachel Fritts

As temperatures rise, tropical forests will become more stressed and photosynthesize less.

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