In the whole life cycle of production process, the stability of production manufacturing system is an important production factor. However, there were a few researches about the system stability in the past years. In this paper, for the stability of production manufacturing system, a new method is proposed based on Petri-net and analytic hierarchy process. In the proposed method, the reachability of manufacturing system is judged by using Petri-net, and the system stability is calculated by the successful probability of the key production nodes. Finally, evaluation steps of the new method are given, and the new evaluation method is applied in case study.