scholarly journals An Overview of New Developments in Shale Gas: Induced Seismicity Aspect

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Shafie Zadeh ◽  
Shahriar Talebi
Keyword(s):  
Shale Gas ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
New Developments

scholarly journals A New Procedure for Evaluating Ground-Motion Models, with Application to Hydraulic-Fracture-Induced Seismicity in the United Kingdom

2020 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 2380-2397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Cremen ◽  
Maximilian J. Werner ◽  
Brian Baptie
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Ground Motion ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Hydraulic Fracture ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Ground Motions ◽  
Induced Earthquakes ◽  
Statistical Tool ◽  
Motion Models ◽  
Ground Motion Models

ABSTRACT An essential component of seismic hazard analysis is the prediction of ground shaking (and its uncertainty), using ground-motion models (GMMs). This article proposes a new method to evaluate (i.e., rank) the suitability of GMMs for modeling ground motions in a given region. The method leverages a statistical tool from sensitivity analysis to quantitatively compare predictions of a GMM with underlying observations. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method relative to several other popular GMM ranking procedures and highlight its advantages, which include its intuitive scoring system and its ability to account for the hierarchical structure of GMMs. We use the proposed method to evaluate the applicability of several GMMs for modeling ground motions from induced earthquakes due to U.K. shale gas development. The data consist of 195 recordings at hypocentral distances (R) less than 10 km for 29 events with local magnitude (ML) greater than 0 that relate to 2018/2019 hydraulic-fracture operations at the Preston New Road shale gas site in Lancashire and 192 R<10  km recordings for 48 ML>0 events induced—within the same geologic formation—by coal mining near New Ollerton, North Nottinghamshire. We examine: (1) the Akkar, Sandikkaya, and Bommer (2014) models for European seismicity; (2) the Douglas et al. (2013) model for geothermal-induced seismicity; and (3) the Atkinson (2015) model for central and eastern North America induced seismicity. We find the Douglas et al. (2013) model to be the most suitable for almost all of the considered ground-motion intensity measures. We modify this model by recomputing its coefficients in line with the observed data, to further improve its accuracy for future analyses of the seismic hazard of interest. This study both advances the state of the art in GMM evaluation and enhances understanding of the seismic hazard related to U.K. shale gas development.

scholarly journals Modeling of fault reactivation and induced seismicity during hydraulic fracturing of shale-gas reservoirs

2013 ◽  
Vol 107 ◽  
pp. 31-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonny Rutqvist ◽  
Antonio P. Rinaldi ◽  
Frédéric Cappa ◽  
George J. Moridis
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Fault Reactivation ◽  
Gas Reservoirs ◽  
Shale Gas Reservoirs

scholarly journals A Novel Approach to Assessing Nuisance Risk from Seismicity Induced by UK Shale Gas Development, with Implications for Future Policy Design

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gemma Cremen ◽  
Maximilian J. Werner
Keyword(s):  
Ground Motion ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Structural Damage ◽  
Policy Design ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Ground Shaking ◽  
North West ◽  
Novel Approach

Abstract. We propose a novel framework for assessing the risk associated with seismicity induced from hydraulic fracturing, which has been a notable source of recent public concern. The framework combines statistical forecast models for injection-induced seismicity, ground motion prediction equations, and exposure models for affected areas, to quantitatively link the volume of fluid injected during operations with the potential for nuisance felt ground motions. Such (relatively small) motions are expected to be more aligned with the public tolerance threshold for induced seismicity than larger ground shaking that could cause structural damage. This proactive type of framework, which facilitates control of the injection volume ahead of time for risk mitigation, has significant advantages over reactive-type magnitude and ground motion-based systems typically used for induced seismicity management. The framework is applied to the region surrounding the Preston New Road shale gas site in North West England. A notable finding is that the calculations are particularly sensitive to assumptions of the seismicity forecast model used, i.e. whether it limits the cumulative seismic moment released for a given volume or assumes seismicity is consistent with the Gutenberg–Richter distribution for tectonic events. Finally, we discuss how the framework can be used to inform relevant policy.

scholarly journals Real‐Time Imaging, Forecasting, and Management of Human‐Induced Seismicity at Preston New Road, Lancashire, England

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huw Clarke ◽  
James P. Verdon ◽  
Tom Kettlety ◽  
Alan F. Baird ◽  
J‐Michael Kendall
Keyword(s):  
Hydraulic Fracturing ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Shale Gas ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Red Light ◽  
Fracture Network ◽  
Fluid Injection ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Subsurface Fluid

ABSTRACTEarthquakes induced by subsurface fluid injection pose a significant issue across a range of industries. Debate continues as to the most effective methods to mitigate the resulting seismic hazard. Observations of induced seismicity indicate that the rate of seismicity scales with the injection volume and that events follow the Gutenberg–Richter distribution. These two inferences permit us to populate statistical models of the seismicity and extrapolate them to make forecasts of the expected event magnitudes as injection continues. Here, we describe a shale gas site where this approach was used in real time to make operational decisions during hydraulic fracturing operations.Microseismic observations revealed the intersection between hydraulic fracturing and a pre‐existing fault or fracture network that became seismically active. Although “red light” events, requiring a pause to the injection program, occurred on several occasions, the observed event magnitudes fell within expected levels based on the extrapolated statistical models, and the levels of seismicity remained within acceptable limits as defined by the regulator. To date, induced seismicity has typically been regulated using retroactive traffic light schemes. This study shows that the use of high‐quality microseismic observations to populate statistical models that forecast expected event magnitudes can provide a more effective approach.

Induced seismicity: the potential hazard from shale gas development and CO2 geologic storage

2015 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin-Yong Lee ◽  
Matthew Weingarten ◽  
Shemin Ge
Keyword(s):  
Shale Gas ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Potential Hazard ◽  
Geologic Storage
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