The future is inherently uncertain. However, most policies are deliberate attempts to anticipate the future and to change and shape the future in an intended way. This chapter provides concepts for three key elements that are necessary to prepare for an unknown future. First, it conceptualizes what makes the future uncertain; uncertainty does not stem from the amount of time itself, but rather from the dynamics that can play out in that time. That is why it matters significantly if a system is complex or complicated; complex systems are much more dynamic and unpredictable, and complicated systems are much more stable and predictable. Second, there are different approaches for “studying” the dynamics; forecasting and foresight depart from entirely different angles of looking at the future, and both have their own strengths and weakness. Third, there are different organizational strategies for preparing for an unknown future; robustness, resilience, and adaptivity are three possible principles for organizing and preparing for uncertainty. In order to prepare for an uncertain future, or to study the uncertain future, scholars and policymakers should systematically take these three essential steps into account; how is the future unknown, how do we study the future, and what concept for anticipation do we apply here?
The future of education in complex systems
