How Is the Future Unknown?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martijn van der Steen ◽  
Mark van Twist
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Organizational Strategies ◽  
The Future ◽  
Uncertain Future

The future is inherently uncertain. However, most policies are deliberate attempts to anticipate the future and to change and shape the future in an intended way. This chapter provides concepts for three key elements that are necessary to prepare for an unknown future. First, it conceptualizes what makes the future uncertain; uncertainty does not stem from the amount of time itself, but rather from the dynamics that can play out in that time. That is why it matters significantly if a system is complex or complicated; complex systems are much more dynamic and unpredictable, and complicated systems are much more stable and predictable. Second, there are different approaches for “studying” the dynamics; forecasting and foresight depart from entirely different angles of looking at the future, and both have their own strengths and weakness. Third, there are different organizational strategies for preparing for an unknown future; robustness, resilience, and adaptivity are three possible principles for organizing and preparing for uncertainty. In order to prepare for an uncertain future, or to study the uncertain future, scholars and policymakers should systematically take these three essential steps into account; how is the future unknown, how do we study the future, and what concept for anticipation do we apply here?

The time that money requires: Use of the future and critique of the present in financial valuation

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 95-113
Author(s):  
Fabian Muniesa ◽  
Liliana Doganova
Keyword(s):  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Financial Valuation ◽  
The Future ◽  
History Of ◽  
Future Value ◽  
Philosophical Implication ◽  
Sociology Of Finance ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Political Technology

The future is persistently considered in the sociology of finance from two divergent, problematic angles. The first approach consists in supplementing financial reasoning with an acknowledgement of the expectations that are needed in order to cope with an uncertain future and justify the viability of investment decisions. The second approach, often labelled critical, sees on the contrary in the logic of finance a negation of the future and an exacerbation of the valuation of the present. This is an impasse the response to which resides, we suggest, in considering the language of future value, which is indeed inherent to a financial view on things, as a political technology. We develop this argument through an examination of significant episodes in the history of financial reasoning on future value. We explore a main philosophical implication which consists in suggesting that the medium of temporality, understood in the dominant sense of a temporal progression inside which projects and expectations unfold, is not a condition for but rather a consequence of the idea of financial valuation.

scholarly journals Methane, Climate Change, and Our Uncertain Future

Eos ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 99 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Dean
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
The Future ◽  
Uncertain Future

Methane is generally considered secondary to carbon dioxide in its importance to climate change, but what role might methane play in the future if global temperatures continue to rise?

INTEGRATING CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT PROCESSES ‒ NECESSARY ACTION TO INCREASE EFFECTIVENESS OF MILITARY ACTIONS

2021 ◽  
Vol 79 (2) ◽  
pp. 122-132
Author(s):  
Ionuţ CIORANU ◽  
Ion CHIORCEA
Keyword(s):  
Synergistic Action ◽  
Capability Development ◽  
Security Environment ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Efficient Integration ◽  
Development Processes ◽  
Lost Time ◽  
Uncertain Future

In the increasingly uncertain future conditions, because the lost time cannot be recovered, the only one within reach remains the future. Thus, defence planning is about planning for an uncertain future, about reducing the level of uncertainty, or about increasing the level of tolerance for uncertainty. Therefore, we consider that it is time to move on to prospective planning, to the management components reprioritization, with an emphasis on foresight, especially as we observe the security environment new specifics, in order to choose, develop and maintain those capabilities to meet current and future challenges. In this article we will analyze all these aspects, in an attempt to highlight the fact that the efficient integration of those elements, which lead to obtaining and maintaining optimal capabilities, must represent a synergistic action in order to increase the effectiveness of military actions.

Crossing the Chasm

2012 ◽  
pp. 280-289
Author(s):  
Theresa M. Vitolo
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Serious Games ◽  
Social Economic ◽  
Serious Game ◽  
Scientific Methods ◽  
Current State ◽  
Gaming Technology ◽  
The Future

Serious games are technology with unrealized potential as an innovation for reasoning about complex systems. The technology is enticing to technologically-savvy individuals, but the acceptance of serious games into mainstream processes requires addressing several systemic issues spanning social, economic, behavioral, and technological aspects. First, deployment of gaming technology for critical processes needs to embrace statistical and scientific methods appropriate for valid, accurate, and verifiable simulation of such processes. Second, identifying the correct instance and application breadth for a serious game within an organization needs to be articulated and supported with research. Third, funding for serious-games initiatives will need to be won as the funding will displace monies previously allocated and championed for other projects. Last, the endeavor faces the problem of negative connotations about its appropriateness as a viable technology for mainstream processes rather than for entertainment and diversion. The chapter examines the chasm serious games must traverse by examining the issues and posing approaches to minimize their effect on the adoption of the technology. The histories of other technologies that faced similar hurdles are compared to the current state of serious games, offering a perspective on the hurdle’s resolution. In the future, the hurdles can be minimized as curricula are developed with the solutions to the issues incorporated in the content.

Grasshopper theology: Heading to the Promised Land instead of climate disaster

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (3) ◽  
pp. 412-416
Author(s):  
Brooks Berndt
Keyword(s):  
The Body ◽  
Body Of Christ ◽  
Self Assessment ◽  
The Road ◽  
Promised Land ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Face ◽  
On The Road ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Climate Crisis

Today’s climate crisis provokes dystopian and utopian narratives of the future faced by humanity. To navigate the theological terrain between the present and an uncertain future, this article explores passages pertaining to the journey of Moses and the Israelites to the Promised Land. The guiding point of orientation for this exploration comes from a verse that captures the seeming powerlessness of the Israelites in the face of the giants inhabiting the Promised Land. Numbers 13:33 reads, “To ourselves we seemed like grasshoppers, and so we seemed to them.” Of crucial importance in coming to terms with such honest self-assessment is the period of discernment and growth that comes from being in the wilderness with the presence of a God who loves and empowers grasshoppers in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds. Because the future of the Body of Christ is inseparable from how the climate crisis is confronted, the journey through the wilderness becomes not merely a story for self-coping but rather a story about churches finding a way forward, even as some dystopian narratives place churches on the road to irrelevance and ultimately extinction. This article explores how the story of exodus provides a sacred ground for imagining a different, even if difficult, future.

Delegation and political turnover

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-288
Author(s):  
Greg Sasso
Keyword(s):  
Policy Making ◽  
Policy Conflict ◽  
The Future ◽  
Uncertain Future ◽  
Second Period ◽  
Policy Stability

We study a two-period delegation model with an uncertain future principal. In the first period, an incumbent principal decides whether to delegate policy-making authority to an agent or make policy herself. Before the second period, there is an election, and another principal with different preferences may take power. The main result is that the incumbent can exploit the uncertainty about the future principal to extract policy surplus from the agent. The agent’s uncertainty about the future principal pushes him to implement a policy that both principals accept. The surplus from this compromise policy makes the incumbent better off than she would be without the possibility of turnover. We also find that when costs are low, policy stability can increase as elections become more competitive, as the agent has more incentive to implement a compromise policy. We then allow the incumbent to appoint the agent. We show that as the incumbent becomes more likely to retain office, she prefers more policy conflict with the agent.

Classical Dilemma

1964 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 105-105
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Classical Literature ◽  
Classical World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Face ◽  
Tight Rope ◽  
Uncertain Future

The Classical world continues to dwindle. The study of Greek has vanished altogether from very many schools and, in some places, even Latin hangs upon the uncertain future of administrative reorganization or the relaxation of faculty requirements. In the face of steady retreat, few can now afford the easy luxury of indifference and most admit to a rueful apprehension. What then is the future of the Classics? Unless the present drift is halted, the future must rest mainly with the Universities and it confronts them with a cruel dilemma. The glories of classical literature require the study of the classical languages, but this study, concentrated into three years, leaves scant time for literary glory or humane reflection. Yet literature can only survive if it is read and the study of a civilization can only be fruitful as long as it continues to provoke curious interest. Some will recoil from ‘popular’ or ‘general’ courses but no one should scoff at those who attempt them, for there perhaps lies our best hope that Classics will be more than the secret preserve of a devoted few. Such courses must inevitably walk a giddy tight-rope: if they include too much, they run the risk of drudgery, if they are content with too little, they may decline into that diarrhoea verborum so mercilessly pilloried by Wilamowitz. The state of equilibrium will be hard to attain, but it may be hoped that, with the continuing support of our contributors, Greece & Rome will be able to assist these new and crucial developments.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document