Children’s developing capacity to calibrate the verbal testimony of others with observed evidence when learning causal relations

Across two studies (N = 120), we explored the development of children’s ability to calibrate the certainty of informant testimony with observable data that varied in the degree of predictive causal accuracy. In Study 1, four- and 5-year-olds heard a certain or uncertain explanation about deterministic causal relations. Five-year-olds learned better when the informant provided a certain, more calibrated explanation. In Study 2, children heard similar explanations about probabilistic relations, making the uncertain informant more calibrated. In an advance on previous calibration research, 5-year-olds learned better from an uncertain informant, but only when the explanation was attuned to the stochasticity of the data. These findings imply that the capacity to integrate, and learn efficiently from, distinct sources of knowledge emerges in the preschool years.

After the Massacre: Women’s Islamist Activism in Post-Coup Egypt

This paper draws on event data and interviews to examine the effects of repression on the gendered dynamics of Islamist mobilization in Egypt following the 2013 military coup. Our analysis shows that women’s anti-coup groups were more likely to mobilize following the killing of up to 1,000 anti-coup protestors at Rabaa al-Adawiyya in August 2013. Women’s protests were also more likely in the home districts of those killed at Rabaa. Informant testimony indicates that the Rabaa massacre figured as a transformative event that female activists drew on to motivate their involvement in street protests. Taken together, our findings suggest that very harsh repression can enable women’s participation in Islamist street politics – but this activism can come at a considerable personal cost for participants. Women who joined anti-coup protests were subjected to calibrated sexual violence by Egyptian security forces as well as other social penalties.