Daqing Crude Oil Price Forecast Based on the ARIMA Model

Oil is the lifeblood of the industrial economy, oil prices are affected by many factors. China is a major industrial country, changes in the price of oil will affect many aspects of economic development, and therefore the price of crude oil research is extremely important. In this paper, monthly average prices of crude oil in Daqing from January 2000 to December 2010 are utilized to do the research. Based on ARIMA model by building software using EVIEWS, rule of oil price movements is found and a prediction of oil price is made using the data from the first 10 months of 2011.

Chapter V. The World Economy

Economic growth in the industrial countries was less in 1967 than in any year since 1958. Their industrial production rose by only about 2 per cent and their total output by about 3 per cent. The slowing down was most marked in North America and West Germany, but Japan was the only major industrial country to maintain (and indeed improve upon) the previous year's rate of industrial expansion or to achieve a significantly bigger increase in total national output.