Energy crypto currencies and leading U.S. energy stock prices: are Fibonacci retracements profitable?

This paper investigates the role of Fibonacci retracements levels, a popular technical analysis indicator, in predicting stock prices of leading U.S. energy companies and energy cryptocurrencies. The study methodology focuses on applying Fibonacci retracements as a system compared with the buy-and-hold strategy. Daily crypto and stock prices were obtained from the Standard & Poor's composite 1500 energy index and CoinMarketCap between November 2017 and January 2020. This study also examined if the combined Fibonacci retracements and the price crossover strategy result in a higher return per unit of risk. Our findings revealed that Fibonacci retracement captures energy stock price changes better than cryptos. Furthermore, most price violations were frequent during price falls compared to price increases, supporting that the Fibonacci instrument does not capture price movements during up and downtrends, respectively. Also, fewer consecutive retracement breaks were observed when the price violations were examined 3 days before the current break. Furthermore, the Fibonacci-based strategy resulted in higher returns relative to the naïve buy-and-hold model. Finally, complementing Fibonacci with the price cross strategy did not improve the results and led to fewer or no trades for some constituents. This study’s overall findings elucidate that, despite significant drops in oil prices, speculators (traders) can implement profitable strategies when using technical analysis indicators, like the Fibonacci retracement tool, with or without price crossover rules.

Are the macroeconomic effects on oil price asymmetric? An asymmetric quantile regression approach

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to the clarification of whether the dependence and causality between oil and the macrofundamentals change across different quantiles of the distribution function. Design/methodology/approach Within the context of an asymmetric quantile approach, we drop the assumption that variables operate at the upper tails of the distribution in the way that they operate at the mean. Findings Our innovative approach indicates that the response of oil prices not only differs according to the underlying source of the variables shock but also differs across the quantiles. Originality/value Although a number of recent studies are closely related to our present research, our novel findings offer some important insights that foreshadow the empirical results. The current research addresses to answer the following questions, in sequence: (i) Is there any extreme value dependence between the crude oil and macroeconomic variables? If yes, (ii) is the dependence symmetric or asymmetric? Finally, (iii) can this dependence be driven by the phases of the economic cycle?

THE HISTORY OF THE COVID 19, AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CRUDE OIL PRICE CHANGES (IN CONTEXT OF INDIA`S COVID 19 CONTEXT)

Oil is the most essential fuel for the world presently and the world, India is the third largest oil importer in the world, with 9.7 percent of the world oil imports, after China and USA, India imports around 80 percent of its oil needs and aims to bring down to 67 percent by 2022, by replacing it by local exploration, renewable energy and indigenous ethanol fuel, but in India there is lack of demand for crude oil and oil products due to Covid-19 epidemic, which made Indian government to imply restrictions, to lockdown of various firms, industries, public and private sector institutions, as health emergency, according to the report of IEA ( International Energy Agency) India’s 40 days lockdown has led to decrease in 30 percent fall in countries demand for energy. Price inflexibility is concern for Indian oil producers, as it is the biggest shock since the Second World War, The global economy is expected to enter recessionary zone in 2020, as countries have shut down there normal business activities, to fight the pandemic led to imbalances in demand and supply of oil prices in the Indian market, Indian oil companies are waiting for the tax reductions and packages by the government, in the short term imbalance in oil demand and supply situation. The purpose of the research paper is that, Indian government has a great task to fight against pandemic as a health emergency and oil prices fluctuations in the year 2020. KEY WORDS: History of the pandemic covid social growth and crude oil prices (PETROLEUM),

Assessing the Impact of the Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Arab Countries

The role of oil and gas in the modern economy is undeniable. That is why oil-exported countries have a good chance to wealth. But if the economy doesn't have diversification or there is no political stability this revenue cannot become welfare for the long run. As well as the changing of oil prices doe in the world market can impact the revenues of oil-exported countries. The purpose of the research – to assess the impact of the oil price shocks on economic growth in oil-exporting Arab countries. As a methodology, there were chosen VAR models and Granger causality tests. The practical importance of the research is to predict economic growth in other oil-exporting countries. The authors came to the conclusion that oil-price change has positive impacts on GDP growth in oil-rich Arab countries and there is the strong dependency from oil prices. The originality and scientific novelty of the research connected with this argue that oil revenues have impacts on economic growth only in economic and political stability.

The Asymmetric Impacts of Crude Oil Prices, Inflation, the Exchange Rate, Institutional Quality, and Trade Balance on Tourist Arrivals in Bangladesh: A Nonlinear ARDL Model Approach

The nonlinear interaction of oil prices, inflation, the exchange rate, institutional quality, and trade balance on tourist arrivals in Bangladesh is scrutinized in this study. The technique utilized in this study, Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL), is a novel co-integrating strategy. The yearly time series data used in this study spanned 1995 to 2019. The NARDL bound test is performed to assess if variables like oil prices, inflation, the exchange rate, institutional quality, and trade balance on tourist arrivals are co-integrated. Oil prices and exchange rates, according to the findings, have a long-run negative and significant impact on tourism demand, whereas improvements in institutional quality are positively associated with tourist arrivals. Moreover, the study’s findings revealed a nonlinear kinship between the trade balance, inflation, and tourism demand across time. The asymmetric results obtained could enable Bangladeshi policymakers to make more precise decisions.