The purpose of this study was to fit theoretical models of prediction to students’ decisions to enroll and persist in urban middle school band programs using independent variables of academic achievement, socioeconomic status (SES), family structure, mobility, ethnicity, and gender. Two models were fitted to the data using logistic regression analysis techniques. One predicted initial enrollment (i.e., sixth grade); the other predicted retention (i.e., eighth grade). Academic achievement and family structure emerged as the only significant predictors of initial enrollment decisions. Higher academically achieving students and those from two-parent or two-guardian homes were more likely to begin band instruction. Higher academically achieving students and those from two-parent or two-guardian homes also were more likely to persist in band, as were students from higher SES and females. Comparisons between models suggest slight differences in the nonmusic factors affecting initial enrollment and retention.
